Prospect Ramblings – Don’t Overrate Don’t Underrate Part 2 – Sept 13 2018

by Pat Quinn on September 13, 2018
  • Prospects Rambling
  • Prospect Ramblings – Don’t Overrate Don’t Underrate Part 2 – Sept 13 2018

Note: WOW this graphic is WAAAAY better than Jokke’s graphics! 

 

Welcome to the new new and improved Thursday prospect ramblings, or the same ones as always but now I am back gearing up for the fantasy hockey year!

 

I am going to go over the last 16 teams (alphabetically) and pick a prospect (or young player in case some teams have no room) to not overrate/underrate as this is PART 2.

 

Overrating means you should not reach for the player and underrate means don’t like them slip for too long! There are always “sleeper” young players fantasy GMs reach for, here is who not to reach dramatically for or let slip too far down the draft list.

 

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Montreal

 

Don’t Overrate:

Any young payer on this team… or really ANY player on this team. This team will be one of the lowest scoring teams in the NHL this season do not draft any of the early.

 

Don’t Underrate:

Charles Hudon – Often when watching Habs games last season Hudon stood out to me in his limited minutes, he is a good player. Last season he shot 5.6% and he can possibly shoot that low forever, so expect him to post better goal scoring numbers if he shoots the same amount or more.

Artturi Lehkonen – Lehkonen had a typical sophomore slump most young players have when playing in the NHL. With Pacioretty out of the way expect Lehkonen to be used more to score goals, and it will be tough for anyone on this team to score, but 20 goals should not be out of the question.

 

Nashville

 

Don’t Overrate:

Eeli Tolvanen – Is he awesome, yes, will he break in to the top six in Nashville, very unlikely. ET would be an upgrade on line three but the Preds may not want to waste his development playing him in limited minutes as ET has a clause in his contract where he can go back to the KHL this season. Just don’t go picking him expecting a 30-30 season as he is far more likely to rarely play than he is to play a top line role.

 

Don’t Underrate:

Jusse Saros – Yes everyone knows who he is, I am including him here to remind you to be the one to draft him if you need a goalie in the late rounds that could get more games than anyone expects. Yes Rinne winning the vezina last season was the worst thing to happen to Saros for this year, but if Rinne falters for a couple games expect Saros to play.

 

New Jersey

 

Don’t Overrate:

Will Butcher – I highly doubt he will post the same 44 point season as he did last year, and his peripheral will stay around the same (low shots, hits and blocks), which makes him a hyped up player that will not score like you think he will.

 

Don’t Underrate:

I want to put Zacha here as I am a big fan but it I tough to know when he will break out, better than 35 points will be great for him. So just remember Hischer posted 52 points on a bum wrist all season, expect those numbers to improve.

 

New York Islanders

 

Don’t Overrate:

The Islanders off season idea of “signing or trading for bad players” to play on the team so they could block young players was an overreationary bad move, and one as a Devils fan I remember Lou doing when the Devils lost Parise and Kovalchuck in back to back years. So the top six should be good and the bottom six will be….bad.

 

Don’t Underrate:

Ryan Pulock and Anthony Beauvillier – Both are awesome and both should be counted on for more offense. Hopefully Pulock can grab the spot on PP1 as Leddy rarely shoots, and Beauvillier can stay in the top six.

 

New York Rangers

 

Don’t Overrate:

Neal Pionk – With 14 points in 28 games he looks like he could be a late round steal, especially if you need a defenseman, but in reality he has five defensemen ahead of him (Shattenkirk, Staal, Skjei, Smith, and McQuaid) and three to battle in camp. Should he make the roster, yes, but he won’t be more than the number four defenseman.

 

Don’t Underrate:

Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil as both are awesome, but don’t draft them high as the Rangers are going to be a team that will have a tough time scoring and of these two I would grab Chytil first.

 

Ottawa

 

Don’t Overrate:

All 10 rookies that will play this yea according to Melnyk. What an awful video. I am sorry Sens fans.

For real though, I have no idea what the lines will look like as of right now, Karlsson could soon be traded. This team stinks and outside of Duchene, Stone and Karlsson no one will really score.

 

Don’t Underrate:

Thomas Chabot – We all know Ottawa will be bad, but if/when Karlsson is moved Chabot will take over the PP1 duties and Ottawa will need people to score. That scenario perfects fits for Chabot

 

Philadelphia

 

Don’t Overrate:

Ivan Provorov – I am putting him here because as awesome as he is Ghost should still be drafted ahead of him on defense for the Flyers (if you are wanting points and powerplay points), but in terms of multi-category Provorov should be ahead of Ghost.

 

Don’t Underrate:

Flyers will be great for fantasy and everyone should draft all players appropriately (for the most part). I guess I would say do not sleep on Oskar Lindblom is he plays with Nolan Patrick (when healthy) again.

 

Pittsburgh

 

Don’t Overrate AND Don’t Underrate:

Daniel Sprong – He counts as both here as I just want to cheat. Ha! Sprong could play with Geno if the Penguins put Kessel on line three which would be fantastic for him, but also if he is playing with Brassard that would not be a terrible downgrade as Brassard is a good player. Just watch on where he is set up in training camp and exhibition play as that will determine his upcoming performance.

 

St. Louis

 

Don’t Overrate:

Robert Thomas – I will stay to die on this hill until the season plays out. I think he will be sent down as there is just no room on the Blues with the 17 players they signed this off season. You can see more in the August 31-in-31 here: https://dobberprospects.com/st-louis-blues-offseason-prospect-system-review/ 

 

Don’t Underrate:

Robby Fabbri – Everyone hopes he stays healthy this season, and two freak long-term knee injures will shy a lot of people away. If he lasts until the later rounds in your draft then congratulations you’ll have a top six winger for St. Louis.

 

San Jose

 

Don’t Overrate:

Evander Kane’s play once he signs a long term contract, wait I am writing on young players

Timo Meier – As awesome as he is Evander Kane took his spot in the lineup, and with Big Joe coming back they have a nice top line set up. They can move Big Joe to line three with Meier which could help him greatly, but expect Meier to bounce between line two and three with minimal powerplay time.

 

Don’t Underrate:

Kevin Labanc – Labanc is one of only two skaters in San Jose to shoot right-handed and that would be a big play on the PP1 role as the fifth player in that set up. Labanc can be a sneaky good late round pick and may go later than Meier but produce better results.

 

Tampa Bay

 

Don’t Overrate:

Anthony Cirelli – As good as drafting Tampa players are the bottom six likely won’t score as well as they did last season. Cirelli is good but don’t expect a Gourde-like output for him this season.

 

Don’t Underrate:

No one. Tampa players get drafted quickly make sure you grab one if possible.

 

Toronto

 

Don’t Overrate:

Kasperi Kapanen – He will be the third line right winger so don’t expect him to hold a top six spot, well he should until William Nylander signs, but when Nylander is resigned KK will drop back to the bottom six.

 

Don’t Underrate:

Andreas Johnsson – The Leafs need a JVR-type on the powerplay and Johnsson can fit that profile perfectly as that was his role in the AHL. There are reports out of Toronto that Babcock wants Johnsson on a line with Tavares and Marner, a Kunitz-like money spot for draft day steals.

 

Vancouver

 

Don’t Overrate AND Don’t Underrate:

Elias Pettersson – This make sense here, hear me out. A lot of people are expect Pettersson to have an amazing season, now he completely could but looking at Vancouver’s line up unless he plays with Boeser and Horvat how much can he score? I highly doubt more than one player (Boeser) on this team will go over 55 points, so do not draft Pettersson like he will. Draft him as a 40-45 point player and love every point he gets more than that.

 

Vegas

 

Don’t Overrate:

No one as I do not think a rookie makes this team, and even if Cody Glass makes this team I do not think many people will reach for him as his wingers would be not great players.

 

Don’t Underrate:

Shea Theodore (if he signs before/during camp) – Theodore will be the 1PP defenseman for Vegas and should put up points. Colin Miller should be there as well, and is a good selection if Theodore still is unsigned when the season starts.

 

Washington

 

Don’t Overrate:

No rookies that the Capitals will possibly have on the team will make a big impact (Boyd / Barber). Christian Djoos is saddled on line three with Brooks Orpik and does not get powerplay time, so you can’t expect a big points uptick for him.

Sergei Shumakov – Shumakov should make the Capitals but I doubt he will be put in the top six spots over Oshie and Wilson, even though he would likely be an upgrade in skill to both players.

 

Don’t Underrate:

None. Capitals get drafted where they can. If you can snag Andre Burakovsky late and he does not get hurt during the year you should walk away happy.

 

Winnipeg

 

Don’t Overrate:

Jack Roslovic – He could be the number two centre on the Jets playing with Ehlers and Liane, but he could also be the number three centre and have a massive downgrade in wingers to play with. Just don’t reach to draft him as the number two centre

 

Don’t Underrate:

Kyle Connor – Wheeler, Sheifele, Liane, Ehlers, and Buff should all get drafted ahead of Connor, but do not forget he had 31 goals last season, an extremely quiet 31 goals I might add.

 

 

I hope you enjoyed my over/under series. Follow my twitter here: @FHPQuinn and if you have comments on my article message me there.