Summary: Numerical rating from zero to ten. Indicates what are the odds of said prospect becoming a full-time NHL player (e.g. 5.5 rating equals to 55% odds). Prospect’s NHL Certainty changes over time – 18-year-olds start with lower odds, and those odds are improved if their development is on track and they prove themselves against higher level of competition. Prospects who are already playing in the NHL should have a rating of 9.0 or higher.
It’s important to understand this rating is not Upside Certainty. Becoming a full-time NHL player doesn’t mean prospect will reach his upside – he can become a full-time depth player. Upside Certainty rating is only available in Dobber’s Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report.
An analysis of NHL Draft pick probabilities was done in May 2020 (link), and as a result of that, the following chart can be used as a guideline to determine each prospect’s NHL Certainty.
Summary: Numerical rating from zero to ten. Indicates prospect’s ultimate offensive upside in a best-case scenario (e.g. playing a full season alongside a superstar player like Connor McDavid). This would be considered the prospect’s peak season and doesn’t mean he would stay at that level year after year.
Ideally, Fantasy Upside would not change over time if his upside can be perfectly captured as an 18-year-old. Obviously, it can and will be adjusted when needed but our goal is to get it right as early as possible. Fantasy Upside is purely about points. Goal-scorers or multi-cat players don’t get any bonus points here. Check out their profiles to find out if they have additional value in multi-cat leagues.
Easy conversion – 8.0 for 80 points, 6.0 for 60 points, and so on.
10.0 for 70+ points
9.5 for 65
9.0 for 62
8.5 for 58
8.0 for 55
7.5 for 52
7.0 for 48
6.5 for 45
6.0 for 42
5.5 for 40
5.0 for 37
4.5 for 35
4.0 for 32
3.5 for 30
9.5 to 10.0 for elite level goalies (rare)
7.5 to 9.0 for Top 10 type of potential NHL starters
6.0 to 7.0 for moderate/lower-end NHL starters
5.0 to 6.0 for 1A/1B goalies
3.0 to 4.5 for backup goalies