This year’s World Championships was a memorable one if you’re a Canadian. It was certainly a memorable one if you are an Arizona Coyotes, Ottawa Senators, or Calgary Flames fan, with strong showings from Connor Garland, Darcy Keumper, Connor Brown, Nick Paul, and tournament MVP Andrew Mangiapane. There didn’t seem to be the same high level of NHL talent that we’ve seen in many years and that is largely due to the whole global pandemic thing that has made the past two seasons a grind for players. Only those looking for an opportunity to stack their resume and of course represent their country were the ones to go and seek Gold for their country.

This also means that youth was well represented at the tournament. We saw 15 of the top 20 scorers in the tournament under the age of 30 and 11 of the top 30 were 25 and under. As fantasy owners this is exciting. Sure, when the likes of John Tavares, Ryan O Reilly, or Nicklas Backstrom show up to the tournament after elimination it can be great, but we already know what those players are…star players. This year we saw 18-year-old Owen Power step up to the plate hoping to pad his resume for the first overall pick (I don’t know if he knew Buffalo would have the pick at the time). The soon-to-be drafted prospect got high praise from Gerard Gallant and it showed with him logging heavy minutes down the stretch for Canada and especially in the Gold medal game.

So, what does this all mean if a prospect shows out in this tournament, how seriously should we be taking their production in a tournament that doesn’t always feature all of the best players in the world? I’m glad you asked, I was thinking the same thing.

Of all the players 22 and under (a prospect), here is how they faired in the tournament:

Liam Kirk (21) 7GP 7G 2A 9P – The only player under 22 to be a point per game and he tied MVP Andrew Mangiapane for the tournament lead in goals which a much less NHL experienced supporting cast. Someone get this guy a contract.

Jason Robertson (21) 10GP 4G 5A 9P – Coming off a Calder nominee season, there isn’t much left to say about JRob that I haven’t already said, this guy is really good.

Anton Lundell (19) 10GP 4G 3A 7P – He was strong captaining Finland at the World Juniors and should be a fantastic number two to Alex Barkov in Florida soon.

Maxime Comtois (22) 10GP 4G 2A 6P – Already cementing a solid spot in Anaheim’s emerging top six, that includes future powerplay time with Jaime Drysdale, Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Sam Steel, and the third overall pick this year.

Nico Hischier (22) 8GP 2G 4A 6P – Aside from being named one of the youngest captains in NHL history, this season was one to forget which included two injuries and some time on the Covid list. He doesn’t have the same blazing speed but I’d expect a Nathan MacKinnon lite version of a breakout age 23 season.

There were more players under this criteria such as Dmitry Voronkov, Lucas Reichel, Philipp Kurashev, and Nils Lundqvist. They all had good showings for their age but I still have a lot left to say on the validity of a U22 player’s performance at this tournament translating to NHL success.

Thanks to Quanthockey.com, I was able to see the players who achieved a point-per-game in this tournament at each age from 18 to 22 with a minimum of three games played. I took a sample size of 1980 to modern-day, as this tournament was well served by youth prior to that point and it’s a bit more of a modern sample size. I then tracked each of those player’s NHL games played, point totals, and points per game. Let’s take a look.

Here are the leading scorer’s age 22:

If we are looking at a .70 points per game as a star-producing forward and .45 as a star-producing defense. We have two star defencemen, those being Mike Green at .56 points per game and Dion Phaneuf at .47. Seven of 33 forwards reaching star producer status (Ovechkin, Draisaitl, Fleury, Eichel, Yashin, Heatley, Makarov, Getzlaf, Weight, Tanti, Staal, Radulov, Nash). So, basically just because a 22-year-old prospect is playing in this tournament and scoring at a point per game level only 21% since 1980 have gone on to star producer level at the NHL.

Let’s look at age 21:

This one bodes much higher for the translation to NHL star status. 16 of 36 forwards (44%) have gone on to a .75 point per game or higher, with the same number of star producers as above (7) reaching point per game status (Gretzky, McDavid, Sakic, Kurri, Hull, Fleury, Sundin). We also see Filip Hronek reach the mark as a defenceman with a .47 in his short time in the NHL. Also, look who we have on that list ahead of (likely) Calder winner Kirill Kaprizov and Hall of Famer Mats Sundin? The boy himself, Liam Kirk, tied for the sixth-best point total for a 21-year-old at the tournament since 1980 and tied for second in goals in that same period with Brett Hull, Wayne Gretzky, Joe Sakic, William Nylander, Mikko Rantanen, Vladimir Ruzicka, Dave Christian, and Filip Hronek. Pretty good company for defenceman Hronek and unsigned free agent, Kirk.

Let’s move on to age 20:

I feel that you’re noticing a trend, the younger you are at this tournament, the better it usually bodes for NHL success. We now have 18 of 31 (66%) players reaching star producer status. We saw four defencemen at this age reach point per game, with only Charlie McAvoy reaching star status with .52 and Justin Faulk just missing the mark at .43. We also see Nils Lundqvist barely making the mark at three games played but it’s an encouraging sight for New York Rangers fans to see him on the list.

Let’s get onto the teens starting with the 19-year-olds:

Here we see 11 of 17 (64%) or 12 of 17 (70%) reach star status if we count Saku Koivu at .74%. Seth Jones, the only defenceman to reach point per game in the tournament at this age. He also makes the mark of a star producer at the NHL level with .49 points per game.

Finally, our elite class of 18-year-old point per game producers. Sadly, we can’t add Owen Power or Matt Beniers to this list as they were not all that close to point per game. It’s a small class though:

Look at that, all except Kaspars Daugavins and his 91 games in the NHL were able to reach star producer status. Robert Reichel just made the mark and Laine is at risk of losing that title but it’s a six-person class with 83% reaching star producer status.

One of the glaring “problems” I saw with this list is that a lot has changed since 1980 and those before the year 2000 might not be the best examples. I’m only 27 and I barely remember watching Alex Mogilny play, and he was one of the first to defect from Russia. When you consider some of the star Finnish, Russian, and Swedish (among other countries) players prior to the year 2000, it was a different story than it is today in translating their skill and talent to the NHL game. Prospects are also hitting more these days, as player development and scouting have shaped. We value smaller players more than before, have more resources, and have learned from the mistakes of the past (for the most part). For this reason, I decided to separate the players into pre-Backstreet Boys “Millenium” Album and post.

Here is pre-2000:

47 players (8 players played twice of the 55 above) to reach a point-per-game under the age of 22 between 1980 and 2000. Of those players 21 of 39 forwards reached star producer status and zero of two defencemen. 17 reached 1000 games in the NHL.

Now how did our Millenials do? did they surpass 53% in forwards? how about 0% in defenceman?

We had seven players play twice and two play three times (Ovechkin and Tavares). This means that there were 62 players since 2000 to reach a point per game. Of that 62, eight were defencemen, so we had 54 forwards. Of those 54 forwards, 30 had reached star producer status at the NHL level for 54%. So, only one percent higher, which I found interesting. What is even more interesting is that all of the players to reach a point-per-game as a defenceman all reached star producer status, except Justin Faulk and Nils Lundqvist. Lundqvist hasn’t played in the NHL yet and Faulk missed the mark by 2%. So, it’s safe to say that if you see a defenceman in this tournament producing at a point per game level, I would draft him in fantasy.

Basically, this tournament isn’t a traditional scouting tournament but if a young player is lighting up the scoresheets under the age of 22, there is about a 60% chance or higher that they will become a star at the NHL level and almost a guarantee if they’re a defencemen.

Last but not least, someone sign Liam Kirk already.

For reference, here is the sheet broken into Forwards and Defence.

Forwards (sorted by goals):

Defense (sorted by points per game):

Thanks for reading. Follow me on Twitter @mikekosciesza.