Prospect Ramblings: Under 22 and a point per game at the World Championships: Is that good?

Michael Kosciesza

2021-06-09

This year’s World Championships was a memorable one if you’re a Canadian. It was certainly a memorable one if you are an Arizona Coyotes, Ottawa Senators, or Calgary Flames fan, with strong showings from Connor Garland, Darcy Keumper, Connor Brown, Nick Paul, and tournament MVP Andrew Mangiapane. There didn’t seem to be the same high level of NHL talent that we’ve seen in many years and that is largely due to the whole global pandemic thing that has made the past two seasons a grind for players. Only those looking for an opportunity to stack their resume and of course represent their country were the ones to go and seek Gold for their country.

This also means that youth was well represented at the tournament. We saw 15 of the top 20 scorers in the tournament under the age of 30 and 11 of the top 30 were 25 and under. As fantasy owners this is exciting. Sure, when the likes of John Tavares, Ryan O Reilly, or Nicklas Backstrom show up to the tournament after elimination it can be great, but we already know what those players are…star players. This year we saw 18-year-old Owen Power step up to the plate hoping to pad his resume for the first overall pick (I don’t know if he knew Buffalo would have the pick at the time). The soon-to-be drafted prospect got high praise from Gerard Gallant and it showed with him logging heavy minutes down the stretch for Canada and especially in the Gold medal game.

So, what does this all mean if a prospect shows out in this tournament, how seriously should we be taking their production in a tournament that doesn’t always feature all of the best players in the world? I’m glad you asked, I was thinking the same thing.

Of all the players 22 and under (a prospect), here is how they faired in the tournament:

Liam Kirk (21) 7GP 7G 2A 9P – The only player under 22 to be a point per game and he tied MVP Andrew Mangiapane for the tournament lead in goals which a much less NHL experienced supporting cast. Someone get this guy a contract.

Jason Robertson (21) 10GP 4G 5A 9P – Coming off a Calder nominee season, there isn’t much left to say about JRob that I haven’t already said, this guy is really good.

Anton Lundell (19) 10GP 4G 3A 7P – He was strong captaining Finland at the World Juniors and should be a fantastic number two to Alex Barkov in Florida soon.

Maxime Comtois (22) 10GP 4G 2A 6P – Already cementing a solid spot in Anaheim’s emerging top six, that includes future powerplay time with Jaime Drysdale, Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Sam Steel, and the third overall pick this year.

Nico Hischier (22) 8GP 2G 4A 6P – Aside from being named one of the youngest captains in NHL history, this season was one to forget which included two injuries and some time on the Covid list. He doesn’t have the same blazing speed but I’d expect a Nathan MacKinnon lite version of a breakout age 23 season.

There were more players under this criteria such as Dmitry Voronkov, Lucas Reichel, Philipp Kurashev, and Nils Lundqvist. They all had good showings for their age but I still have a lot left to say on the validity of a U22 player’s performance at this tournament translating to NHL success.

Thanks to Quanthockey.com, I was able to see the players who achieved a point-per-game in this tournament at each age from 18 to 22 with a minimum of three games played. I took a sample size of 1980 to modern-day, as this tournament was well served by youth prior to that point and it’s a bit more of a modern sample size. I then tracked each of those player’s NHL games played, point totals, and points per game. Let’s take a look.

Here are the leading scorer’s age 22:

Name (year) Position Games Goals Assists Points NHL Games NHL Points NHL P/PG
Vladimir Krutov (1983) F 10 8 7 15 61 34 0.5573770492
Vladimir Ruzicka (1983) F 10 4 11 15 233 167 0.7167381974
Ryan Getzlaf (2008) F 9 3 11 14 1101 982 0.8919164396
Mike Green (2008) D 9 4 8 12 880 501 0.5693181818
Igor Larianov (1983) F 9 5 7 12 921 644 0.6992399566
Alexander Ovechkin (2008) F 9 6 6 12 1197 1320 1.102756892
Rick Nash (2007) F 9 6 5 11 1060 805 0.7594339623
Theoron Fleury (1991) F 8 5 5 10 1084 1088 1.003690037
Dany Heatley (2003) F 9 7 3 10 869 791 0.9102416571
Alexander Radulov (2009) F 9 4 6 10 453 346 0.7637969095
Eric Staal (2007) F 9 5 5 10 1293 1034 0.7996906419
Linus Omark (2009) F 9 2 8 10 79 32 0.4050632911
Jan Hlavac (1999) F 10 5 5 10 436 224 0.5137614679
Igor Liba (1983) F 10 2 8 10 37 25 0.6756756757
Dieter Hegen (1985) F 10 5 5 10
Mikhail Grabovski (2006) F 7 5 4 9 534 296 0.5543071161
Leon Draisaitl (2018) F 7 2 7 9 478 506 1.058577406
Rudolfs Balcers (2019) F 8 1 9 9 92 34 0.3695652174
Alexei Yashin (1996) F 8 4 5 9 850 781 0.9188235294
Patrik Berglund (2011) F 9 8 2 9 717 326 0.4546722455
Hannu Jarvenpaa (1986) F 9 4 4 9 114 37 0.3245614035
Dion Phaneuf (2007) D 7 0 8 8 1048 494 0.4713740458
Sergei Makarov (1981) F 8 3 5 8 424 384 0.9056603774
Tony Tanti (1986) F 8 5 3 8 697 560 0.8034433286
Jack Eichel (2019) F 8 2 6 8 375 355 0.9466666667
Domonik Kubalik (2018) F 8 3 5 8 124 84 0.6774193548
Matt Cullen (1999) F 6 1 6 7 1516 731 0.4821899736
Kari Jalonen (1982) F 7 3 4 7 37 15 0.4054054054
Rauli Raitanen (1992) F 7 2 5 7
Mikhail Vasiljev (1985) F 7 3 4 7
Doug Weight (1993) F 6 0 6 6 1238 1033 0.8344103393
Eric Daze (1998) F 3 1 4 5 601 398 0.6622296173
Dan Doirion (1985) F 5 2 3 5 4 2 0.5

 

If we are looking at a .70 points per game as a star-producing forward and .45 as a star-producing defense. We have two star defencemen, those being Mike Green at .56 points per game and Dion Phaneuf at .47. Seven of 33 forwards reaching star producer status (Ovechkin, Draisaitl, Fleury, Eichel, Yashin, Heatley, Makarov, Getzlaf, Weight, Tanti, Staal, Radulov, Nash). So, basically just because a 22-year-old prospect is playing in this tournament and scoring at a point per game level only 21% since 1980 have gone on to star producer level at the NHL.

Let’s look at age 21:

Name (year) Position Games Goals Assists Points NHL Games NHL Points NHL P/PG
Connor McDavid (2018) F 10 5 12 17 407 574 1.41031941
Nathan MacKinnon (1995) F 10 6 9 15 573 560 0.9773123909
Wayne Gretzky (1982) F 10 6 8 14 1487 2857 1.92131809
William Nylander (2017) F 10 7 7 14 358 263 0.7346368715
Dave Christian (1981) F 8 8 3 11 1009 773 0.7661050545
Ville Peltonen (1995) F 8 6 5 11 382 148 0.387434555
Mikko Rantanen (2018) F 8 5 6 11 333 316 0.9489489489
Jeremy Roenick (1991) F 9 5 6 11 1363 1216 0.8921496698
Brett Hull (1986) F 10 7 4 11 1269 1391 1.096138692
Hannu Jarvenpaa (1985) F 10 7 4 11 114 37 0.3245614035
Vladimir Ruzicka (1985) F 10 8 3 11 233 167 0.7167381974
Joe Sakic (1991) F 10 6 5 11 1378 1641 1.190856313
Filip Hronek (2019) D 10 3 8 11 167 80 0.4790419162
Jiri Lala (1981) F 8 7 3 10
Theoron Fleury (1990) F 8 7 3 10 1084 1088 1.003690037
Igor Larianov (1982) F 10 4 6 10 921 644 0.6992399566
Petr Rosol (1986) F 10 6 4 10
Liam Kirk (2021) F 7 7 2 9
Tony Granato (1986) F 8 2 7 9 773 492 0.6364812419
Andreas Johansson (1995) F 8 3 6 9 377 169 0.4482758621
Valeri Karpov (1993) F 8 4 5 9 76 29 0.3815789474
John Tavares (2012) F 8 4 5 9 870 819 0.9413793103
Alex Debrincat (2019) F 8 7 2 9 286 229 0.8006993007
Paul Stastny (2007) F 7 4 4 8 1001 755 0.7542457542
Mats Sundin (1992) F 8 2 6 8 1346 1349 1.002228826
Jordan Eberle (2012) F 8 4 4 8 779 551 0.7073170732
Alexander Wennberg (2016) F 8 1 7 8 471 230 0.4883227176
Kirill Kaprisov (2018) F 8 6 2 8 55 51 0.9272727273
Laurent Meunier (2000) F 6 4 3 7
Dustin Brown (2006) F 7 5 2 7 1232 684 0.5551948052
Jari Kurri (1982) F 7 4 3 7 1251 1398 1.117505995
Timo Meier (2018) F 7 2 5 7 317 188 0.5930599369
Peter Regin (2017) F 5 3 3 6 243 67 0.2757201646
David Pastrnak (2018) F 5 4 2 6 438 427 0.9748858447
Kevin Fiala (2018) F 5 1 4 5 337 198 0.587537092
Mike Mottau (1999) D 3 2 1 3 321 58 0.1806853583
James Neal (2009) F 3 1 2 3 850 555 0.6529411765
Artem Demkov (2011) F 3 1 2 3

 

This one bodes much higher for the translation to NHL star status. 16 of 36 forwards (44%) have gone on to a .75 point per game or higher, with the same number of star producers as above (7) reaching point per game status (Gretzky, McDavid, Sakic, Kurri, Hull, Fleury, Sundin). We also see Filip Hronek reach the mark as a defenceman with a .47 in his short time in the NHL. Also, look who we have on that list ahead of (likely) Calder winner Kirill Kaprizov and Hall of Famer Mats Sundin? The boy himself, Liam Kirk, tied for the sixth-best point total for a 21-year-old at the tournament since 1980 and tied for second in goals in that same period with Brett Hull, Wayne Gretzky, Joe Sakic, William Nylander, Mikko Rantanen, Vladimir Ruzicka, Dave Christian, and Filip Hronek. Pretty good company for defenceman Hronek and unsigned free agent, Kirk.

Let’s move on to age 20:

Name (year) Position Games Goals Assists Points NHL Games NHL Points NHL P/PG
Sebastian Aho (2018) F 8 9 9 18 366 320 0.8743169399
Eric Lindros (1993) F 8 11 6 17 760 865 1.138157895
Rick Nash (2005) F 9 9 6 15 1060 805 0.7594339623
Patrice Bergeron (2006) F 9 6 8 14 1143 917 0.8022747157
Mats Sundin (1991) F 10 7 5 12 1346 1349 1.002228826
Mitchell Marner (2017) F 10 4 8 12 355 358 1.008450704
Pavel Bure (1991) F 10 8 8 11 702 779 1.10968661
Teemu Selanne (1991) F 10 6 5 11 1451 1457 1.004135079
Phil Kessel (2008) F 7 6 4 10 1122 904 0.8057040998
Saku Koivu (1995) F 8 5 5 10 1124 832 0.7402135231
Jarkko Varvio (1992) F 8 9 1 10 13 7 0.5384615385
Johnny Gaudreau (2014) F 8 2 8 10 520 494 0.95
Dylan Larkin (2017) F 8 2 8 10 433 289 0.6674364896
Elias Petterson (2019) F 8 3 7 10 165 153 0.9272727273
Evgeni Malkin (2007) F 9 5 5 10 940 1104 1.174468085
Mikko Rantanen (2017) F 10 4 6 10 333 316 0.9489489489
Charlie McAvoy (2018) D 6 3 6 9 235 122 0.5191489362
Alexander Ovechkin (2006) F 7 6 3 9 1197 1320 1.102756892
John Tavares (2011) F 7 5 4 9 870 819 0.9413793103
Vladimir Krutov (1981) F 8 6 3 9 61 34 0.5573770492
Nico Hischier (2019) F 8 4 5 9 230 146 0.6347826087
Aleksander Barkov (2016) F 9 3 6 9 529 465 0.8790170132
Michael Nylander (1993) F 7 1 7 8 920 649 0.7054347826
Jere Lehtinen (1994) F 8 3 5 8 875 514 0.5874285714
Mikael Renberg (1993) F 8 5 3 8 661 464 0.7019667171
Justin Faulk (2012) D 8 4 4 8 684 299 0.4371345029
Marian Hossa (1999) F 6 5 2 7 1309 1134 0.8663101604
Tomas Vanek (2004) F 6 2 5 7 1029 789 0.7667638484
Derek Stepan (2011) F 7 2 5 7 759 485 0.6389986825
Nils Lundkvist (2021) D 3 0 5 5
Uwe Krupp (1986) D 3 2 1 3 729 281 0.3854595336

 

I feel that you’re noticing a trend, the younger you are at this tournament, the better it usually bodes for NHL success. We now have 18 of 31 (66%) players reaching star producer status. We saw four defencemen at this age reach point per game, with only Charlie McAvoy reaching star status with .52 and Justin Faulk just missing the mark at .43. We also see Nils Lundqvist barely making the mark at three games played but it’s an encouraging sight for New York Rangers fans to see him on the list.

Let’s get onto the teens starting with the 19-year-olds:

Name (year) Position Games Goals Assists Points NHL Games NHL P/PG
Paul Kariya (1994) F 8 5 7 12 989 989 1
Saku Koivu (1994) F 8 5 6 11 1124 832 0.7402135231
Seth Jones (2014) D 8 2 9 11 580 286 0.4931034483
Steven Stamkos (2009) F 9 7 4 11 841 866 1.029726516
Sebastian Aho (2017) F 10 2 9 11 366 320 0.8743169399
Ed Olczyk (1986) F 7 4 6 10 1031 874 0.8477206596
Patrick Kane (2008) F 7 3 7 10 1029 1088 1.057337221
Mario Lemieux (1985) F 9 4 6 10 915 1723 1.883060109
Evgeni Malkin (2006) F 7 3 6 9 940 1104 1.174468085
Magnus Paajrvi (2010) F 9 5 4 9 467 124 0.2655246253
Mikael Granlund (2011) F 9 2 7 9 591 379 0.641285956
Sergei Fedorov (1989) F 10 6 3 9 1248 1179 0.9447115385
Alexander Ovechkin (2005) F 8 5 3 8 1197 1320 1.102756892
Phil Kessel (2007) F 7 2 5 7 1122 904 0.8057040998
Matt Duchene (2010) F 7 4 3 7 827 602 0.7279322854
John Tavares (2010) F 7 7 0 7 870 819 0.9413793103
Jordan Eberle (2010) F 4 1 3 4 779 551 0.7073170732
Eeli Tolvanen (2018) F 4 2 2 4 47 24 0.5106382979

 

Here we see 11 of 17 (64%) or 12 of 17 (70%) reach star status if we count Saku Koivu at .74%. Seth Jones, the only defenceman to reach point per game in the tournament at this age. He also makes the mark of a star producer at the NHL level with .49 points per game.

Finally, our elite class of 18-year-old point per game producers. Sadly, we can’t add Owen Power or Matt Beniers to this list as they were not all that close to point per game. It’s a small class though:

Name (year) Position Games Goals Assists Points NHL Games Points NHL P/PG
Sidney Crosby (2006) F 9 8 8 16 1039 1325 1.275
Patrik Laine (2016) F 10 7 5 12 351 271 0.77
Robert Reichel (1990) F 10 5 6 11 830 630 0.75
Anze Kopitar (2006) F 6 3 6 9 1129 1000 0.88
Paul Kariya (1993) F 8 2 7 9 989 989 1
Kaspars Daugavins (2007) F 6 3 3 6 91 15 0.16

 

Look at that, all except Kaspars Daugavins and his 91 games in the NHL were able to reach star producer status. Robert Reichel just made the mark and Laine is at risk of losing that title but it’s a six-person class with 83% reaching star producer status.

One of the glaring “problems” I saw with this list is that a lot has changed since 1980 and those before the year 2000 might not be the best examples. I’m only 27 and I barely remember watching Alex Mogilny play, and he was one of the first to defect from Russia. When you consider some of the star Finnish, Russian, and Swedish (among other countries) players prior to the year 2000, it was a different story than it is today in translating their skill and talent to the NHL game. Prospects are also hitting more these days, as player development and scouting have shaped. We value smaller players more than before, have more resources, and have learned from the mistakes of the past (for the most part). For this reason, I decided to separate the players into pre-Backstreet Boys “Millenium” Album and post.

Here is pre-2000:

Name (year) Position Games Goals Assists Points NHL Games Points NHL P/PG Age
Wayne Gretzky (1982) F 10 6 8 14 1487 2857 1.92131809 21
Mario Lemieux (1985) F 9 4 6 10 915 1723 1.883060109 19
Joe Sakic (1991) F 10 6 5 11 1378 1641 1.190856313 21
Eric Lindros (1993) F 8 11 6 17 760 865 1.138157895 20
Jari Kurri (1982) F 7 4 3 7 1251 1398 1.117505995 21
Pavel Bure (1991) F 10 8 8 11 702 779 1.10968661 20
Brett Hull (1986) F 10 7 4 11 1269 1391 1.096138692 21
Teemu Selanne (1991) F 10 6 5 11 1451 1457 1.004135079 20
Theoron Fleury (1990) F 8 7 3 10 1084 1088 1.003690037 21
Theoron Fleury (1991) F 8 5 5 10 1084 1088 1.003690037 22
Mats Sundin (1991) F 10 7 5 12 1346 1349 1.002228826 20
Mats Sundin (1992) F 8 2 6 8 1346 1349 1.002228826 21
Paul Kariya (1993) F 8 2 7 9 989 989 1 18
Paul Kariya (1994) F 8 5 7 12 989 989 1 19
Sergei Fedorov (1989) F 10 6 3 9 1248 1179 0.9447115385 19
Alexei Yashin (1996) F 8 4 5 9 850 781 0.9188235294 22
Sergei Makarov (1981) F 8 3 5 8 424 384 0.9056603774 22
Jeremy Roenick (1991) F 9 5 6 11 1363 1216 0.8921496698 21
Marian Hossa (1999) F 6 5 2 7 1309 1134 0.8663101604 20
Ed Olczyk (1986) F 7 4 6 10 1031 874 0.8477206596 19
Doug Weight (1993) F 6 0 6 6 1238 1033 0.8344103393 22
Tony Tanti (1986) F 8 5 3 8 697 560 0.8034433286 22
Dave Christian (1981) F 8 8 3 11 1009 773 0.7661050545 21
Robert Reichel (1990) F 10 5 6 11 830 630 0.75 18
Saku Koivu (1995) F 8 5 5 10 1124 832 0.7402135231 20
Vladimir Ruzicka (1985) F 10 8 3 11 233 167 0.7167381974 21
Vladimir Ruzicka (1983) F 10 4 11 15 233 167 0.7167381974 22
Michael Nylander (1993) F 7 1 7 8 920 649 0.7054347826 20
Mikael Renberg (1993) F 8 5 3 8 661 464 0.7019667171 20
Igor Larianov (1982) F 10 4 6 10 921 644 0.6992399566 21
Igor Larianov (1983) F 9 5 7 12 921 644 0.6992399566 22
Igor Liba (1983) F 10 2 8 10 37 25 0.6756756757 22
Eric Daze (1998) F 3 1 4 5 601 398 0.6622296173 22
Tony Granato (1986) F 8 2 7 9 773 492 0.6364812419 21
Jere Lehtinen (1994) F 8 3 5 8 875 514 0.5874285714 20
Vladimir Krutov (1981) F 8 6 3 9 61 34 0.5573770492 20
Vladimir Krutov (1983) F 10 8 7 15 61 34 0.5573770492 22
Jarkko Varvio (1992) F 8 9 1 10 13 7 0.5384615385 20
Jan Hlavac (1999) F 10 5 5 10 436 224 0.5137614679 22
Dan Doirion (1985) F 5 2 3 5 4 2 0.5 22
Matt Cullen (1999) F 6 1 6 7 1516 731 0.4821899736 22
Filip Hronek (2019) D 10 3 8 11 167 80 0.4790419162 21
Andreas Johansson (1995) F 8 3 6 9 377 169 0.4482758621 21
Kari Jalonen (1982) F 7 3 4 7 37 15 0.4054054054 22
Ville Peltonen (1995) F 8 6 5 11 382 148 0.387434555 21
Uwe Krupp (1986) D 3 2 1 3 729 281 0.3854595336 20
Valeri Karpov (1993) F 8 4 5 9 76 29 0.3815789474 21
Hannu Jarvenpaa (1985) F 10 7 4 11 114 37 0.3245614035 21
Hannu Jarvenpaa (1986) F 9 4 4 9 114 37 0.3245614035 22
Mike Mottau (1999) D 3 2 1 3 321 58 0.1806853583 21
Jiri Lala (1981) F 8 7 3 10 21
Petr Rosol (1986) F 10 6 4 10 21
Dieter Hegen (1985) F 10 5 5 10 22
Rauli Raitanen (1992) F 7 2 5 7 22
Mikhail Vasiljev (1985) F 7 3 4 7 22

 

47 players (8 players played twice of the 55 above) to reach a point-per-game under the age of 22 between 1980 and 2000. Of those players 21 of 39 forwards reached star producer status and zero of two defencemen. 17 reached 1000 games in the NHL.

Now how did our Millenials do? did they surpass 53% in forwards? how about 0% in defenceman?

Name (year) Position Games Goals Assists Points NHL Games Points NHL P/PG Age
Connor McDavid (2018) F 10 5 12 17 407 574 1.41031941 21
Sidney Crosby (2006) F 9 8 8 16 1039 1325 1.275 18
Evgeni Malkin (2006) F 7 3 6 9 940 1104 1.174468085 19
Evgeni Malkin (2007) F 9 5 5 10 940 1104 1.174468085 20
Alexander Ovechkin (2005) F 8 5 3 8 1197 1320 1.102756892 19
Alexander Ovechkin (2006) F 7 6 3 9 1197 1320 1.102756892 20
Alexander Ovechkin (2008) F 9 6 6 12 1197 1320 1.102756892 22
Leon Draisaitl (2018) F 7 2 7 9 478 506 1.058577406 22
Patrick Kane (2008) F 7 3 7 10 1029 1088 1.057337221 19
Steven Stamkos (2009) F 9 7 4 11 841 866 1.029726516 19
Mitchell Marner (2017) F 10 4 8 12 355 358 1.008450704 20
Nathan MacKinnon (1995) F 10 6 9 15 573 560 0.9773123909 21
David Pastrnak (2018) F 5 4 2 6 438 427 0.9748858447 21
Johnny Gaudreau (2014) F 8 2 8 10 520 494 0.95 20
Mikko Rantanen (2017) F 10 4 6 10 333 316 0.9489489489 20
Mikko Rantanen (2018) F 8 5 6 11 333 316 0.9489489489 21
Jack Eichel (2019) F 8 2 6 8 375 355 0.9466666667 22
John Tavares (2010) F 7 7 0 7 870 819 0.9413793103 19
John Tavares (2011) F 7 5 4 9 870 819 0.9413793103 20
John Tavares (2012) F 8 4 5 9 870 819 0.9413793103 21
Elias Petterson (2019) F 8 3 7 10 165 153 0.9272727273 20
Kirill Kaprisov (2018) F 8 6 2 8 55 51 0.9272727273 21
Dany Heatley (2003) F 9 7 3 10 869 791 0.9102416571 22
Ryan Getzlaf (2008) F 9 3 11 14 1101 982 0.8919164396 22
Anze Kopitar (2006) F 6 3 6 9 1129 1000 0.88 18
Aleksander Barkov (2016) F 9 3 6 9 529 465 0.8790170132 20
Sebastian Aho (2017) F 10 2 9 11 366 320 0.8743169399 19
Sebastian Aho (2018) F 8 9 9 18 366 320 0.8743169399 20
Phil Kessel (2007) F 7 2 5 7 1122 904 0.8057040998 19
Phil Kessel (2008) F 7 6 4 10 1122 904 0.8057040998 20
Patrice Bergeron (2006) F 9 6 8 14 1143 917 0.8022747157 20
Alex Debrincat (2019) F 8 7 2 9 286 229 0.8006993007 21
Eric Staal (2007) F 9 5 5 10 1293 1034 0.7996906419 22
Patrik Laine (2016) F 10 7 5 12 351 271 0.77 18
Tomas Vanek (2004) F 6 2 5 7 1029 789 0.7667638484 20
Alexander Radulov (2009) F 9 4 6 10 453 346 0.7637969095 22
Rick Nash (2005) F 9 9 6 15 1060 805 0.7594339623 20
Rick Nash (2007) F 9 6 5 11 1060 805 0.7594339623 22
Paul Stastny (2007) F 7 4 4 8 1001 755 0.7542457542 21
William Nylander (2017) F 10 7 7 14 358 263 0.7346368715 21
Matt Duchene (2010) F 7 4 3 7 827 602 0.7279322854 19
Jordan Eberle (2010) F 4 1 3 4 779 551 0.7073170732 19
Jordan Eberle (2012) F 8 4 4 8 779 551 0.7073170732 21
Domonik Kubalik (2018) F 8 3 5 8 124 84 0.6774193548 22
Dylan Larkin (2017) F 8 2 8 10 433 289 0.6674364896 20
James Neal (2009) F 3 1 2 3 850 555 0.6529411765 21
Mikael Granlund (2011) F 9 2 7 9 591 379 0.641285956 19
Derek Stepan (2011) F 7 2 5 7 759 485 0.6389986825 20
Nico Hischier (2019) F 8 4 5 9 230 146 0.6347826087 20
Timo Meier (2018) F 7 2 5 7 317 188 0.5930599369 21
Kevin Fiala (2018) F 5 1 4 5 337 198 0.587537092 21
Mike Green (2008) D 9 4 8 12 880 501 0.5693181818 22
Dustin Brown (2006) F 7 5 2 7 1232 684 0.5551948052 21
Mikhail Grabovski (2006) F 7 5 4 9 534 296 0.5543071161 22
Charlie McAvoy (2018) D 6 3 6 9 235 122 0.5191489362 20
Eeli Tolvanen (2018) F 4 2 2 4 47 24 0.5106382979 19
Seth Jones (2014) D 8 2 9 11 580 286 0.4931034483 19
Alexander Wennberg (2016) F 8 1 7 8 471 230 0.4883227176 21
Filip Hronek (2019) D 10 3 8 11 167 80 0.4790419162 21
Filip Hronek (2019) D 10 3 8 11 167 80 0.4790419162 21
Dion Phaneuf (2007) D 7 0 8 8 1048 494 0.4713740458 22
Patrik Berglund (2011) F 9 8 2 9 717 326 0.4546722455 22
Justin Faulk (2012) D 8 4 4 8 684 299 0.4371345029 20
Linus Omark (2009) F 9 2 8 10 79 32 0.4050632911 22
Rudolfs Balcers (2019) F 8 1 9 9 92 34 0.3695652174 22
Peter Regin (2017) F 5 3 3 6 243 67 0.2757201646 21
Magnus Paajrvi (2010) F 9 5 4 9 467 124 0.2655246253 19
Kaspars Daugavins (2007) F 6 3 3 6 91 15 0.16 18
Nils Lundkvist (2021) D 3 0 5 5 20
Liam Kirk (2021) F 7 7 2 9 21
Laurent Meunier (2000) F 6 4 3 7 21
Artem Demkov (2011) F 3 1 2 3 21

 

We had seven players play twice and two play three times (Ovechkin and Tavares). This means that there were 62 players since 2000 to reach a point per game. Of that 62, eight were defencemen, so we had 54 forwards. Of those 54 forwards, 30 had reached star producer status at the NHL level for 54%. So, only one percent higher, which I found interesting. What is even more interesting is that all of the players to reach a point-per-game as a defenceman all reached star producer status, except Justin Faulk and Nils Lundqvist. Lundqvist hasn’t played in the NHL yet and Faulk missed the mark by 2%. So, it’s safe to say that if you see a defenceman in this tournament producing at a point per game level, I would draft him in fantasy.

Basically, this tournament isn’t a traditional scouting tournament but if a young player is lighting up the scoresheets under the age of 22, there is about a 60% chance or higher that they will become a star at the NHL level and almost a guarantee if they’re a defencemen.

Last but not least, someone sign Liam Kirk already.

For reference, here is the sheet broken into Forwards and Defence.

Forwards (sorted by goals):

Name (year) Age Games Goals Assists Points NHL Games Points NHL P/PG
Eric Lindros (1993) 20 8 11 6 17 760 865 1.138157895
Rick Nash (2005) 20 9 9 6 15 1060 805 0.7594339623
Sebastian Aho (2018) 20 8 9 9 18 366 320 0.8743169399
Jarkko Varvio (1992) 20 8 9 1 10 13 7 0.5384615385
Sidney Crosby (2006) 18 9 8 8 16 1039 1325 1.275
Dave Christian (1981) 21 8 8 3 11 1009 773 0.7661050545
Patrik Berglund (2011) 22 9 8 2 9 717 326 0.4546722455
Pavel Bure (1991) 20 10 8 8 11 702 779 1.10968661
Vladimir Ruzicka (1985) 21 10 8 3 11 233 167 0.7167381974
Vladimir Krutov (1983) 22 10 8 7 15 61 34 0.5573770492
Mats Sundin (1991) 20 10 7 5 12 1346 1349 1.002228826
Brett Hull (1986) 21 10 7 4 11 1269 1391 1.096138692
Theoron Fleury (1990) 21 8 7 3 10 1084 1088 1.003690037
John Tavares (2010) 19 7 7 0 7 870 819 0.9413793103
Dany Heatley (2003) 22 9 7 3 10 869 791 0.9102416571
Steven Stamkos (2009) 19 9 7 4 11 841 866 1.029726516
William Nylander (2017) 21 10 7 7 14 358 263 0.7346368715
Patrik Laine (2016) 18 10 7 5 12 351 271 0.77
Alex Debrincat (2019) 21 8 7 2 9 286 229 0.8006993007
Hannu Jarvenpaa (1985) 21 10 7 4 11 114 37 0.3245614035
Jiri Lala (1981) 21 8 7 3 10
Liam Kirk (2021) 21 7 7 2 9
Wayne Gretzky (1982) 21 10 6 8 14 1487 2857 1.92131809
Teemu Selanne (1991) 20 10 6 5 11 1451 1457 1.004135079
Joe Sakic (1991) 21 10 6 5 11 1378 1641 1.190856313
Sergei Fedorov (1989) 19 10 6 3 9 1248 1179 0.9447115385
Alexander Ovechkin (2008) 22 9 6 6 12 1197 1320 1.102756892
Alexander Ovechkin (2006) 20 7 6 3 9 1197 1320 1.102756892
Patrice Bergeron (2006) 20 9 6 8 14 1143 917 0.8022747157
Phil Kessel (2008) 20 7 6 4 10 1122 904 0.8057040998
Rick Nash (2007) 22 9 6 5 11 1060 805 0.7594339623
Nathan MacKinnon (1995) 21 10 6 9 15 573 560 0.9773123909
Ville Peltonen (1995) 21 8 6 5 11 382 148 0.387434555
Vladimir Krutov (1981) 20 8 6 3 9 61 34 0.5573770492
Kirill Kaprisov (2018) 21 8 6 2 8 55 51 0.9272727273
Petr Rosol (1986) 21 10 6 4 10
Jeremy Roenick (1991) 21 9 5 6 11 1363 1216 0.8921496698
Marian Hossa (1999) 20 6 5 2 7 1309 1134 0.8663101604
Eric Staal (2007) 22 9 5 5 10 1293 1034 0.7996906419
Dustin Brown (2006) 21 7 5 2 7 1232 684 0.5551948052
Alexander Ovechkin (2005) 19 8 5 3 8 1197 1320 1.102756892
Saku Koivu (1994) 19 8 5 6 11 1124 832 0.7402135231
Saku Koivu (1995) 20 8 5 5 10 1124 832 0.7402135231
Theoron Fleury (1991) 22 8 5 5 10 1084 1088 1.003690037
Paul Kariya (1994) 19 8 5 7 12 989 989 1
Evgeni Malkin (2007) 20 9 5 5 10 940 1104 1.174468085
Igor Larianov (1983) 22 9 5 7 12 921 644 0.6992399566
John Tavares (2011) 20 7 5 4 9 870 819 0.9413793103
Robert Reichel (1990) 18 10 5 6 11 830 630 0.75
Tony Tanti (1986) 22 8 5 3 8 697 560 0.8034433286
Mikael Renberg (1993) 20 8 5 3 8 661 464 0.7019667171
Mikhail Grabovski (2006) 22 7 5 4 9 534 296 0.5543071161
Magnus Paajrvi (2010) 19 9 5 4 9 467 124 0.2655246253
Jan Hlavac (1999) 22 10 5 5 10 436 224 0.5137614679
Connor McDavid (2018) 21 10 5 12 17 407 574 1.41031941
Mikko Rantanen (2018) 21 8 5 6 11 333 316 0.9489489489
Dieter Hegen (1985) 22 10 5 5 10
Jari Kurri (1982) 21 7 4 3 7 1251 1398 1.117505995
Ed Olczyk (1986) 19 7 4 6 10 1031 874 0.8477206596
Paul Stastny (2007) 21 7 4 4 8 1001 755 0.7542457542
Igor Larianov (1982) 21 10 4 6 10 921 644 0.6992399566
Mario Lemieux (1985) 19 9 4 6 10 915 1723 1.883060109
John Tavares (2012) 21 8 4 5 9 870 819 0.9413793103
Alexei Yashin (1996) 22 8 4 5 9 850 781 0.9188235294
Matt Duchene (2010) 19 7 4 3 7 827 602 0.7279322854
Jordan Eberle (2012) 21 8 4 4 8 779 551 0.7073170732
Alexander Radulov (2009) 22 9 4 6 10 453 346 0.7637969095
David Pastrnak (2018) 21 5 4 2 6 438 427 0.9748858447
Mitchell Marner (2017) 20 10 4 8 12 355 358 1.008450704
Mikko Rantanen (2017) 20 10 4 6 10 333 316 0.9489489489
Vladimir Ruzicka (1983) 22 10 4 11 15 233 167 0.7167381974
Nico Hischier (2019) 20 8 4 5 9 230 146 0.6347826087
Hannu Jarvenpaa (1986) 22 9 4 4 9 114 37 0.3245614035
Valeri Karpov (1993) 21 8 4 5 9 76 29 0.3815789474
Laurent Meunier (2000) 21 6 4 3 7
Anze Kopitar (2006) 18 6 3 6 9 1129 1000 0.88
Ryan Getzlaf (2008) 22 9 3 11 14 1101 982 0.8919164396
Patrick Kane (2008) 19 7 3 7 10 1029 1088 1.057337221
Evgeni Malkin (2006) 19 7 3 6 9 940 1104 1.174468085
Jere Lehtinen (1994) 20 8 3 5 8 875 514 0.5874285714
Aleksander Barkov (2016) 20 9 3 6 9 529 465 0.8790170132
Sergei Makarov (1981) 22 8 3 5 8 424 384 0.9056603774
Andreas Johansson (1995) 21 8 3 6 9 377 169 0.4482758621
Peter Regin (2017) 21 5 3 3 6 243 67 0.2757201646
Elias Petterson (2019) 20 8 3 7 10 165 153 0.9272727273
Domonik Kubalik (2018) 22 8 3 5 8 124 84 0.6774193548
Kaspars Daugavins (2007) 18 6 3 3 6 91 15 0.16
Kari Jalonen (1982) 22 7 3 4 7 37 15 0.4054054054
Mikhail Vasiljev (1985) 22 7 3 4 7
Mats Sundin (1992) 21 8 2 6 8 1346 1349 1.002228826
Phil Kessel (2007) 19 7 2 5 7 1122 904 0.8057040998
Tomas Vanek (2004) 20 6 2 5 7 1029 789 0.7667638484
Paul Kariya (1993) 18 8 2 7 9 989 989 1
Tony Granato (1986) 21 8 2 7 9 773 492 0.6364812419
Derek Stepan (2011) 20 7 2 5 7 759 485 0.6389986825
Mikael Granlund (2011) 19 9 2 7 9 591 379 0.641285956
Johnny Gaudreau (2014) 20 8 2 8 10 520 494 0.95
Leon Draisaitl (2018) 22 7 2 7 9 478 506 1.058577406
Dylan Larkin (2017) 20 8 2 8 10 433 289 0.6674364896
Jack Eichel (2019) 22 8 2 6 8 375 355 0.9466666667
Sebastian Aho (2017) 19 10 2 9 11 366 320 0.8743169399
Timo Meier (2018) 21 7 2 5 7 317 188 0.5930599369
Linus Omark (2009) 22 9 2 8 10 79 32 0.4050632911
Eeli Tolvanen (2018) 19 4 2 2 4 47 24 0.5106382979
Igor Liba (1983) 22 10 2 8 10 37 25 0.6756756757
Dan Doirion (1985) 22 5 2 3 5 4 2 0.5
Rauli Raitanen (1992) 22 7 2 5 7
Matt Cullen (1999) 22 6 1 6 7 1516 731 0.4821899736
Michael Nylander (1993) 20 7 1 7 8 920 649 0.7054347826
James Neal (2009) 21 3 1 2 3 850 555 0.6529411765
Jordan Eberle (2010) 19 4 1 3 4 779 551 0.7073170732
Eric Daze (1998) 22 3 1 4 5 601 398 0.6622296173
Alexander Wennberg (2016) 21 8 1 7 8 471 230 0.4883227176
Kevin Fiala (2018) 21 5 1 4 5 337 198 0.587537092
Rudolfs Balcers (2019) 22 8 1 9 9 92 34 0.3695652174
Artem Demkov (2011) 21 3 1 2 3
Doug Weight (1993) 22 6 0 6 6 1238 1033 0.8344103393

 

Defense (sorted by points per game):

Name (year) Age Games Goals Assists Points NHL Games Points NHL P/PG
Mike Green (2008) 22 9 4 8 12 880 501 0.5693181818
Charlie McAvoy (2018) 20 6 3 6 9 235 122 0.5191489362
Seth Jones (2014) 19 8 2 9 11 580 286 0.4931034483
Filip Hronek (2019) 21 10 3 8 11 167 80 0.4790419162
Dion Phaneuf (2007) 22 7 0 8 8 1048 494 0.4713740458
Justin Faulk (2012) 20 8 4 4 8 684 299 0.4371345029
Uwe Krupp (1986) 20 3 2 1 3 729 281 0.3854595336
Mike Mottau (1999) 21 3 2 1 3 321 58 0.1806853583
Nils Lundkvist (2021) 20 3 0 5 5

 

Thanks for reading. Follow me on Twitter @mikekosciesza.

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