I am back for some Thursday ramblings.
With the draft lottery completed I am going to discuss my two keeper leagues and which players I am thinking of targeting with my picks. I may give some late gems I am looking at but I am afraid too many people in my pools read my ramblings now, if you are in my pool and reading this I am totally joking these players stink….also some quick hits!
In my main keeper league I run (which may need a new GM, if you think you can handle it leave a comment) I had a crap year and retooled this year with young talent and picks. It is what happens when you have five straight years of top three finishes *self high five* and I feel okay about my team going into the off-season to prepare for 2018-2019. You should never go full rebuild as it takes forever to come back. Also never stay mediocre finishing in the middle do something big to have a chance to win.
This pool uses the stats G, A, +\- (changing), PIM, GWG+SOGWG, Hit+Blk, Special Team Points, W, GAA, SV%, and SO. Start three of each C, LW, and RW, six defensemen, and two goalies, the limit from prospect to keeper is 120 games for skaters and 80 for goalies, and is a keep 13 and 20 prospects. My pick dropped from six to seven and I also have picks 13 and 15. I am writing this on the assumption I do not trade any up or down.
Now guaranteed the top three will go (Dahlin, Svechnikov, and Zadina) but a lot will depend on where players are drafted in the NHL. For example I am not high on Brady Tkachuk but if he goes #4 in the NHL draft it would be guaranteed he goes in picks #4-#6. I believe one of Hughes or Boqvist can fall to me at #7 as one may slide in the draft, and in this writers fantasy hockey opinion you should take high offensive ceiling forwards over defenseman as defensemen take a lot longer to develop. Now if all six of the above mentioned players are picked I would look next to Wahlstrom, Farabee or Kotkaniemi, in that order to give you the best value for the pick.
Pick #13 and #15
These picks are close enough together where I should be able to draft two of the five players I will have in mind after pick #10. Now in our league, along with many other leagues that count positions, centres are not as high value as wingers as there are more high producing centres than wingers. This pick also depends on what NHL GM’s do as they let players with “character” issues fall (Merkley) or high skilled Russians that get picked far later than they should.
Here I am valuing Denisenko, Merkley, Kravtsov, Bokk, Khovanov, and Kaut as high risk / high reward picks that could either do nothing or produce great results. I also go sure thing in the top 10 picks of the draft and anything after that are players that have a high ceiling. I suggest you do the same, if you are in a league similar to mine.
My other keeper pool it is a points only keep all players, with no forward positional restrictions, but we start 12 forwards and six defenseman. The prospect limit is 20 and the games limit is 82 for all players. Here I have pick #12, #21, and #36.
Just a straight points league in this spot I will generally take any player than slides out of the top 10 with a high ceiling, meaning good but not great defenseman I leave for someone else. Depending how far Denisenko, Merkley, or Kravtsov fall I would look to pick one of those three here. If any (or all) fall past pick #21 I would pick a higher selected player at #12 (like Kupari, Bokk, Akil Thomas, and Ty Smith to name three).
Here I would take players who fall who should not fall out of the top 15, no matter how far they go in the first round. If they fall to the second round they should still be available to draft with my later pick as the player generally will become forgotten. It is hard to pinpoint a player here as this pick depends a lot on what happens at the draft.
With my last pick I will take the highest boom-bust player available, and depending on who is left I could trade this pick down or for a future pick. Now you can always grab a player you are high on who goes far too late in the draft with a third round pick as fantasy GMs rarely value those. Merkley and Khovanov could fall around here but Tychonick, Noel, Alexeyev, Woo, and Groulx all offer great value if they are still here.