Prospect Ramblings – Over Agers in Keeper Leagues and Two Barrie Colts – February 1 2018

Pat Quinn

2018-02-01

 

 

Thursday ramblings are once again upon us and holy am I sick. I will try to get through this but it may be a short one. Apologies in advance. I’ll discuss a few over agers and highlight the Svechnikov Sokolov chemistry.

 

And an intro will be possibly my favorite Primus song (well all Primus songs are pretty much my favorite Primus songs)

 

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I just want to highlight a few over agers in the CHL, one in each if the three leagues.

 

But first in regard to adding the over age prospect who is garnering up talk in the hockey community:

 

In keeper leagues I rarely go out of my way to add over age prospects finally putting up a lot of points in their fourth (or 20 year old) season in the CHL. I find it to be a short term bias on prospects people think will all of a sudden burst out on to the scene and be legit NHL stars, but how often does it actually wind up as that. I find that you need to find the undrafted players who consistently put up points but are passed over in the draft.

 

Prospect mining in the European and Russian leagues (MHL, KHL) should be the first place you look. Next is undrafted CHL prospects who consistently put up points but are often passed over because of their size. Rarely if ever should you pluck the 20 year-old CHL player in his fourth year who is all of a sudden over a point per game rate, usually I find this stat to be most prevalent in the OHL.

 

If you can grab a Dane Fox before others and then trade him to a homer on the team he signs on, or in a deal to upgrade a roster player do that. Otherwise if you have no room (like me continuously in keeper leagues with my prospect bench full and 30+ others on a watch list) just let other GMs fight over them and look to the better options that have just been overlooked or not looked at.

 

When looking to the QMJHL to see how Zadina and Abramov are doing you notice a player right now at the top of the point standings is one Alex Barre-Boulet. Currently sitting with 89 points in 46 games this does not look like your average fluke season, or your “he is 20 so he should be dominating” type season. It has me incredibly intrigued. Barre-Boulet has been putting up tons of points since his second year in the QMJHL, with his first season being no slouch either. He has had a point per game average of 0.75, 1.37, 1.25, and currently sits with 1.93. He should be a highly sought after free agent, but he is also 5’09-5’10 so he may have to go through the long process and be one of those “success” stories because NHL GM’s like size over skill still.

 

Aaron Luchuk currently sits third in the OHL in points but has never really had over a point per game in the OHL until his fourth (and 20 year-old) season where he has 72 points in 47 games. This is a pattern in an over age player I do not believe, where they put up alright totals in their first three season then burst into the tops for scoring in their league. He was signed by the Ottawa Senators on December 26, 2017, a nice little post-Christmas present, but the odds are against him becoming an NHL top-six type scorer.

 

Brayden Burke is a slight player with excellent playmaking vision and I cannot really understand why he is still unsigned. Standing at 5-10 and weighing 170 lbs all he has done is put up points when healthy. He will not be confused with a big goal scorer but can control the play and set up his teammates. He is leading the WHL in points, but also had a 100+ point season in 2015-2016, and should not go unsigned too long. But again because of size may have to take a longer route to get to the pro leagues.

 

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Check out these stat lines in nine games since Dmitri Sokolov was traded to the Barrie Colts to play alongside Andrei Svechnikov, who I might consider drafting ahead of Rasmus Dahlin in keeper league drafts as Svechnikov should start scoring right away where as it could take Dahlin a few seasons to put up points (ala Victor Hedman).

 

Sokolov: 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points, 39 shots

 

Svechnikov: 8 goals, 7 assists, 15 points, 30 shots

 

These two, plus Aaron Luchuk noted above, make Barrie a legit threat to win the playoffs, and yes I do know the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds only have five regulation losses.

 

In a prospect draft I will still take Svechnikov over all other forwards. This kid is a beast if you can get him with the third pick or lower consider that a massive win.

 

 

Follow my twitter I need my rest now. @FHPQuinn

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