Nevalainen: 2020 Mock Draft

Jokke Nevalainen

2020-06-29

 

Now that we got some clarity on the draft order, it’s time to do a mock draft. The goal of this mock draft is to be as realistic as possible, so you won’t see any wild swings here. But instead, you’ll see a mock draft with 93 selections instead of just the usual 10 or 31.

 

Defining draft order

 

As we all know, the full final draft order isn’t set yet. We don’t even know which team is drafting first overall. But we gained some information from the draft lottery (part one), so that was used here. For the rest, I did my best to guesstimate what might happen. For the final order of this mock draft, I made the following assumptions:

  • The favorites always win their match-ups in the play-in series and playoffs or the playoffs are cancelled altogether (the results are the same in both cases)
  • Montreal wins the second draft lottery (all eight teams will have equal odds but Montreal had the worst regular season record among those teams, so I felt they deserved it)

 

After putting together the final order of the teams based on those assumptions, I checked to see which draft picks have been traded. After that, I also checked to see what kind of conditional draft picks are yet to be determined and what would happen to them based on the assumptions above.

 

Making the selections

 

To create the most reliable mock draft possible, I used Bob McKenzie’s Final Draft Rankings as a guideline throughout the process. I copied the list of names and their stats from the TSN website and then tried to figure out at each pick which player they might select at that spot taking team needs and draft tendencies into consideration. Player’s placement on Bob’s rankings are mentioned in the mock draft under the column “Bob”.

 

I followed Bob’s rankings pretty closely, mostly just moving players up and down a little bit based on what I expect to happen. But there is one big exception to that – goalies. Bob’s rankings didn’t have any goalies in the second round whereas I believe three of four of them will be drafted there. Goalies may not end up high on consensus rankings because scouts can’t seem to agree which ones are the best. But they generally get drafted pretty high, so I would be shocked if no goalies went in the second round.

 

Please remember that this is a mock draft, not my personal ranking. In many cases, I would not make the same selection that I expect NHL teams to make. I also didn’t include players like Veeti Miettinen, Oskar Magnusson and Anton Johannesson who would certainly be on my top 93 but weren’t on Bob’s list.

 

Mock draft results

 

The full mock draft results are in the table below. After the table, I will go through the most interesting teams and their selections, trying to provide some sort of reasoning for all the selections they made.

 

 

 Pick  NHL team  Bob  Player  Team  Ht  Wt  GP  P
 1  MTL  1  Alexis Lafreniere, LW  Rimouski (QMJHL)  6’1  193  52  112
 2  LAK  3  Quinton Byfield, C  Sudbury (OHL)  6’4  215  45  82
 3  OTT (SJS)  2  Tim Stutzle, C/LW  Mannheim (DEL)  6’1  187  41  34
 4  DET  5  Cole Perfetti, C/LW  Saginaw (OHL)  5’10  177  61  111
 5  OTT  4  Jamie Drysdale, D  Erie (OHL)  5’11  175  49  47
 6  ANA  6  Lucas Raymond, RW  Frölunda (SHL)  5’11  170  33  10
 7  NJD  8  Jake Sanderson, D  USA U-18 (USHL)  6’2  185  47  29
 8  BUF  7  Marco Rossi, C  Ottawa (OHL)  5’9  183  56  120
 9  CHI  11  Yaroslav Askarov, G  St. Petersburg (VHL)  6’3  176  18  0.920
 10  NJD (ARZ)  9  Alexander Holtz, LW/RW  Djurgårdens (SHL)  6’0  192  35  16
 11  MIN  12  Anton Lundell, C  HIFK (SM Liiga)  6’1  185  44  28
 12  WPG  10  Jack Quinn, RW  Ottawa (OHL)  6’0  176  38  89
 13  NYR  14  Kaiden Guhle, D  Prince Albert (WHL)  6’2  186  64  40
 14  FLA  13  Dawson Mercer, C/RW  Chicoutimi (QMJHL)  6’0  180  42  60
 15  CBJ  16  Dylan Holloway, C/LW  Wisconsin (NCAA)  6’0  203  35  17
 16  CGY  17  Braden Schneider, D  Brandon (WHL)  6’2  202  60  42
 17  NJD (VAN)  18  Seth Jarvis, C  Portland (WHL)  5’10  175  58  98
 18  NSH  15  Hendrix Lapierre, C  Chicoutimi (QMJHL)  6’0  179  19  17
 19  CAR (TOR)  19  Rodion Amirov, LW  Ufa (KHL)  6’0  177  17  22
 20  EDM  21  Jacob Perreault, RW  Sarnia (OHL)  5’11  192  57  70
 21  OTT (NYI)  22  Connor Zary, C  Kamloops (WHL)  6’0  178  57  86
 22  NYR (CAR)  20  Lukas Reichel, LW  Berlin (DEL)  6’0  170  42  24
 23  MIN (PIT)  28  Noel Gunler, RW  Lulea (SHL)  6’2  176  45  13
 24  DAL  25  Justin Barron, D  Halifax (QMJHL)  6’2  195  34  19
 25  VGK  23  John-Jason Peterka, LW  Munich (DEL)  5’11  192  42  11
 26  PHI  24  Ridly Greig, C  Brandon (WHL)  5’11  163  56  60
 27  WSH  27  William Wallinder , D  MoDo (SWE J20)  6’4  191  37  24
 28  SJS (TBL)  26  Mavrik Bourque, C  Shawinigan (QMJHL)  5’10  178  49  71
 29  COL  29  Tyson Foerster, RW  Barrie (OHL)  6’2  194  62  80
 30  STL  30  Brendan Brisson, C  Chicago (USHL)  5’11  179  45  59
 31  ANA (BOS)  32  Helge Grans, D  Malmo (SWE J20)  6’2  206  27  27
 32  DET  34  Jan Mysak, C/LW  Hamilton (OHL)  5’10   175  22  25
 33  OTT  31  Jake Neighbours, LW  Edmonton (WHL)  6’0  195  64  70
 34  SJS  37  Ryan O’Rourke, D  Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)  6’0  178  54  37
 35  LAK  33  Jeremie Poirier, D  Saint John (QMJHL)  6’0  196  64  53
 36  ANA  39  Ty Smilanic, C/LW  USA U-18 (USHL)  6’1  175  34  22
 37  NSH (NJD)  38  Topi Niemela, D  Karpat (SM Liiga)  5’10  156  43  7
 38  BUF  41  Sam Colangelo, RW  Chicago (USHL)  6’2  205  44  58
 39  MTL  36  Tyler Kleven, D  USA U-18 (USHL)  6’4  200  45  12
 40  MTL (CHI)  43  Luke Tuch, LW  USA U-18 (USHL)  6’2  203  47  30
 41  ARZ  64  Nico Daws, G  Guelph (OHL)  6’4  199  38  0.924
 42  MIN  35  Marat Khusnutdinov, C/LW  St. Petersburg (MHL)  5’11  176  44  38
 43  WPG  44  Daemon Hunt, D  Moose Jaw (WHL)  6’0  198  28  15
 44  CAR (NYR)  40  Ozzy Wiesblatt, RW  Prince Albert (WHL)  5’10  183  64  70
 45  FLA  42  Shakir Mukhamadullin, D  Ufa (MHL)  6’4  178  13  10
 46  OTT (CBJ)  49  Lukas Cormier, D  Charlottetown (QMJHL)  5’10  180  44  36
 47  CGY  47  Dylan Peterson, C  USA U-18 (USHL)  6’4  192  45  25
 48  LAK (VAN)  45  Will Cuylle, LW  Windsor (OHL)  6’3  204  62  42
 49  NSH  46  Jean-Luc Foudy, RW  Windsor (OHL)  5’11  177  59  43
 50  TOR  56  Brock Faber, D  USA U-18 (USHL)  6’0  190  46  12
 51  DET (EDM)  71  Jan Bednar, G  Sokolov (CZE Jr.)  6’4  196  24  0.873
 52  OTT (NYI)  48  Justin Sourdif, C/RW  Vancouver (WHL)  5’11  173  57  54
 53  CAR  50  Luke Evangelista, RW  London (OHL)  5’11  166  62  61
 54  CHI (PIT)  52  Roby Jarventie, LW  Koovee (Mestis)  6’2  184  36  38
 55  OTT (DAL)  87  Drew Commesso, G  USA U-18 (USHL)  6’2  180  30  0.920
 56  LAK (VGK)  51  Thomas Bordeleau, C  USA U-18 (USHL)  5’10  175  47  46
 57  PHI  53  Daniel Torgersson, LW  Frolunda (SWE J20)  6’3  199  39  44
 58  DET (WSH)  54  Roni Hirvonen, C  Assat (SM Liiga)  5’9  164  52  16
 59  TBL  59  Vasiliy Ponomarev, C  Shawinigan (QMJHL)  5’10  180  57  49
 60  SJS (COL)  HM  Joel Blomqvist, G  Karpat (SM Liiga Jr.)  6’1  182  34  0.931
 61  MTL (STL)  55  Jack Finley, C  Spokane (WHL)  6’6  213  61  57
 62  BOS  60  Joni Jurmo, D  Jokerit (SM Liiga Jr.)  6’4  190  43  28
 63  DET  66  Theodor Niederbach, C  Frolunda (SWE J20)  5’11  172  40  48
 64  OTT  65  Brandon Coe, RW  North Bay (OHL)  6’4  188  60  57
 65  DET (SJS)  67  Emil Andrae, D  HV71 (SWE J20)  5’8  181  40  38
 66  LAK  61  Danil Gushchin, LW/RW  Muskegon (USHL)  5’8  165  42  47
 67  ANA  57  Donovan Sebrango, D  Kitchener (OHL)  6’1  189  56  30
 68  VGK (NJD)  62  Yan Kuznetsov, D  Connecticut (NCAA)  6’4  209  34  11
 69  CAR (BUF)  58  Eemil Viro, D  Turku (SM Liiga)  6’0  165  29  3
 70  MTL  68  Brett Berard, LW  USA U-18 (USHL)  5’9  155  41  34
 71  CHI  73  Zion Nybeck, LW/RW  HV71 (SWE J20)  5’6  182  42  66
 72  WSH (ARZ)  74  Jaromir Pytlik, C  S.S. Marie (OHL)  6&#