Nevalainen: 2020 Mock Draft

Jokke Nevalainen

2020-06-29

 

Now that we got some clarity on the draft order, it’s time to do a mock draft. The goal of this mock draft is to be as realistic as possible, so you won’t see any wild swings here. But instead, you’ll see a mock draft with 93 selections instead of just the usual 10 or 31.

 

Defining draft order

 

As we all know, the full final draft order isn’t set yet. We don’t even know which team is drafting first overall. But we gained some information from the draft lottery (part one), so that was used here. For the rest, I did my best to guesstimate what might happen. For the final order of this mock draft, I made the following assumptions:

  • The favorites always win their match-ups in the play-in series and playoffs or the playoffs are cancelled altogether (the results are the same in both cases)
  • Montreal wins the second draft lottery (all eight teams will have equal odds but Montreal had the worst regular season record among those teams, so I felt they deserved it)

 

After putting together the final order of the teams based on those assumptions, I checked to see which draft picks have been traded. After that, I also checked to see what kind of conditional draft picks are yet to be determined and what would happen to them based on the assumptions above.

 

Making the selections

 

To create the most reliable mock draft possible, I used Bob McKenzie’s Final Draft Rankings as a guideline throughout the process. I copied the list of names and their stats from the TSN website and then tried to figure out at each pick which player they might select at that spot taking team needs and draft tendencies into consideration. Player’s placement on Bob’s rankings are mentioned in the mock draft under the column “Bob”.

 

I followed Bob’s rankings pretty closely, mostly just moving players up and down a little bit based on what I expect to happen. But there is one big exception to that – goalies. Bob’s rankings didn’t have any goalies in the second round whereas I believe three of four of them will be drafted there. Goalies may not end up high on consensus rankings because scouts can’t seem to agree which ones are the best. But they generally get drafted pretty high, so I would be shocked if no goalies went in the second round.

 

Please remember that this is a mock draft, not my personal ranking. In many cases, I would not make the same selection that I expect NHL teams to make. I also didn’t include players like Veeti Miettinen, Oskar Magnusson and Anton Johannesson who would certainly be on my top 93 but weren’t on Bob’s list.

 

Mock draft results

 

The full mock draft results are in the table below. After the table, I will go through the most interesting teams and their selections, trying to provide some sort of reasoning for all the selections they made.

 

 

 Pick  NHL team  Bob  Player  Team  Ht  Wt  GP  P
 1  MTL  1  Alexis Lafreniere, LW  Rimouski (QMJHL)  6’1  193  52  112
 2  LAK  3