Prospect Ramblings: Rookie hot streaks and puck luck

Hayden Soboleski

2017-10-29

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We're already about an eigth of the way through the season, and in fantasy hockey this is the time when I start looking for who's been hot, who's been lucky, and who's due for some puck luck. Its important to catch players on hot streaks and ride those points, but at the same time its a fine line to not put too much stock in players performing at an unsustainable rate. Let's take a look at the highest-scoring rookies so far:

 Rookie  Points  Shooting %  TOI
 Clayton Keller  12  19%  19:54
 Will Butcher  11  0%  15:35
 Jesper Bratt  10  40%  15:27
 Mikhail Sergachev  10  17%  13:19
 Adrain Kempe   9  35%  11:13
 Brock Boeser  9  9%  15:21
 Charlie McAvoy  8  6%  21:52
 Nico Hischier  7  11%  16:14

 

Some of these players are obvisouly performing unsustainably – Bratt will not shoot at a 40% rate all season long, same with Kempe at 35%. In one year-leagues, I recommend feeling out the option of selling high on these two – especially Bratt before Palmieri returns from injury.

League average shooting% is roughly 9%, but natual goal scorers are capable of shooting in the realm of up to 15% consistently (Crosby shot 17% last year to hit 44 goals). Defencemen have a much lower bar in this case, with usually only the most elite offensive d-men shooting above 6% (Karlsson shot 8% last year to get 17 goals). 

Based on this reference alone, its not unreasonable to think Boeser and Hischier could continue their current scoring rates without a problem. Boeser actually has significant room for improvement in my opinion, since he challenges everyone else on the list in terms of pure shooting-ability. Based on the same reference, Sergachev is certainly not going to shoot 17% all year long. McAvoy however could continue at 6%, especially since he's seeing almost 22 minutes TOI per game and looking just fine with the workload. 

Keller's 15% may be too high, but he's also seeing 20 minute TOI per game and leading his team, so in this case he will keep seeing the best minutes. On top of this, Arizona has been godawful so far, so if they start clicking he may benefit from some production around him. I wouldn't sell on him. 

 

Let's take a look at a few more notable rookie names that aren't filling the net just yet:

 Player  Points  Shooting %  TOI
 Alex DeBrincat  5  6%  14:03
 Josh Ho-Sang  4  0%  13:28
 Nolan Patrick  3  7%  12:28
 Joel Eriksson Ek  3  5%  13:05
 Tyson Jost  2  10%  13:10
 Kyle Connor  2  20%  18:31
 Pierre-Luc Dubois  1  8%  11:1