Prospect Ramblings – Translating Junior League Scoring to the NHL

Hayden Soboleski

2016-06-12

Taking a look at how point scoring in different Canadian junior leagues translates to NHL scoring in this Sunday's Ramblings…


Firstly – lets get some trade news out of the way. Florida traded the contract of Marc Savard along with a 2nd-round-pick to New Jersey in exchange for Paul Thompson and Graham Black. The draft pick is the biggest piece in this deal, as well as the extra contract slot opened up by the Devils. Florida most importantly stops paying Savard's contract, and also picks up a serviceable career AHLer in Thompson. Black, a former 5th-round-pick, has failed to flourish at the AHL level over three seasons and should not be on anyone's fantasy radar.

 

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Alright, so every year there are hotshot top scorers in the OHL, QMJHL, and WHL, but when trying to predict how this translates into future NHL scoring, people usually make the decision based on the player's size rather than knack for finding the net. So I want to take a quick look at some of the top offensive performers in each of these leagues over the last few years, to see if their skill tend to make the jump sooner or later. A nice bonus in this study – we may learn if being prolific in any particular league is more or less encouraging than others. 

 

What I've done is take the top three scorers from each league from the 2010-11 season to the 2013-14 season (I deemed the seasons more recent than this too soon to use since some players naturally take longer to physically develop, regardless of skill level). I've listed the points they totaled that junior campaign, and listed beside that the maximum performance output they have shown in a single NHL year to date. For players still on the fringe of receiving regular NHL action, Ive included a number of games played, but for the obvious NHLers I did not bother.

Let's start with the OHL:

  Player OHL Points NHL peak to date
2010-11
Tyler Toffoli 108