NHL franchises and fantasy managers alike love chasing upside. Everyone becomes attracted to the big names and allows them to gain traction with how they draft and build their pipelines. Especially in the fantasy realm, that builds championships, but finding the late blooming gems helps to build a sustained window into a dynasty.

Players in major junior follow a trajectory that makes them projectable. The first season is the season where they adapt to the next level after graduating from Under-18. The next season is typically the breakthrough year, and any subsequent years become the years in which they reach the next level and for the last time in their careers, sometimes dominate at that level. 

Today, we’re going to look at a few players who have hit that next level stride this year, primarily ones who lack the pedigree to attract much notion among fantasy managers. Two undrafted players making noise and comparing their trajectories to past trends and how they can project at the next level.

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LHD Matheo Lepage, Victoriaville Tigres (Undrafted)

Lepage is not known for his offensive upside, but he has taken a big jump from his 0.6 point-per-game threshold last season to above the one per game level. His 17 points in his past 16 games has placed him fourth among all QMJHL defenders in points. 

Historically, Lepage projects as a defenceman who is very reliable and can log a lot of tough minutes. Funny enough, this lines him up on the same trajectory as long-time NHL player David Savard. 

In his first two seasons, Savard had very minimal offensive output, but by his third season, he was a 0.65 point-per-game player and followed that up with a whopping 1.2. Lepage has not quite reached that level yet, but his trajectory is similar to that of Savard that it gives us a glimpse on what to expect, and that is not gaudy offensive numbers. Still, to be able to show that he can take over the blueline on his team is a good sign for his offensive future. 

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LW Nathan Langlois, Halifax Mooseheads (Undrafted)

Langlois started his career with a nice floor of 0.38 points-per-game. He followed it up with 0.86 and is on pace to be 1.17 points-per-game at the season’s end. 

When looking at historical comparables, Langlois matched really closely with Jonathan Marchessault’s career path, who was also an undrafted player out of the Q. But what stood out was how close they were in each respective stage of their careers. 

Marchessault (Years 1, 2, 3, 4): 0.34, 0.85, 1.04, 1.40

Langlois (Years 1, 2, 3): 0.38, 0.86, 1.18

Langlois did not have the benefit of a full rookie season, spending the year with the U18 Levis Chevaliers, so Marchessault had more runway to work with. 

The comparable is not a testament to the style that Langlois plays, but rather how his style lends itself to being useful at the next level. This is not to say he becomes a Conn Smythe winner like Marchessault, but a similar trajectory makes him an interesting bet to make it to the next level. 

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Projecting a player is not always linear, but sometimes it is, just not in the way which makes them a superstar. Late bloomers always find their way into the NHL from various leagues, and will continue to do so. The importance of trending upwards on the development curve is critical, while understanding undrafted players can be the key to building out depth in your fantasy organizations, which could win you a championship and help build out a further dynasty. 

Thank you for reading this month’s QMJHL Report. Later this month we have the Monctonian AAA challenge in Moncton where we will dissect some of the top talent coming from Atlantic Canada into the QMJHL next year, and drafted players who are looking to make the jump next season. 

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Sean Crocker