World Junior PNHLe Breakdown – Group A

 

The World Juniors is the premier hockey prospect tournament and gives fans an opportunity to see their country, and favorite NHL team’s top prospects perform in a playoff intensity induced environment smack dab in the middle of the hockey season.

 

As the World Junior Championship fast approaches, I thought I would compile a consolidated list of all of the teams’ most notable players ranked by their PNHLe statistics for the 2018-19 season. In the first part of this two-part series, I’d like to take a look at the countries in Group A, and although most of the team rosters have been pared down, at the time of writing this article only Canada has tentatively released their tournament line-up.

 

PNHLe is a stat that uses historical values from current NHL players to determine an estimate of a prospect’s eventual point potential in the NHL. There are many variables that aren’t taken into consideration in the current model (i.e., time-on-ice, player usage, primary points, line-mates, etc.), so before you lambaste me with why your favorite prospect should have a higher value, please understand that PNHLe is mainly used from a fantasy perspective to identify trends and infer player point potential over the course of several years – not the small sample of the start of the 2018-19 season.

 

It is a completely objective statistic where the top players usually trend upwards over an entire season, while others tend to fall off during grueling seasons and as competition gets more difficult. That being said, players generally see a decline as rookies while they adjust to more difficult leagues. Therefore, players that make the jump from the CHL to the AHL, or the Swedish SuperElit to the SHL, generally have a drop in value and production based on situational usage, and overall time-on-ice.

 

If you’d like to read more about the PNHLe stat you can do so here. If you notice a prospect that has not been listed, it may be because PNHLe is currently only calculated for eleven different developmental leagues (AHL, WHL, OHL, QMJHL, KHL, SHL, Liiga, NCAA, USHL, Allsvenskan and NHL). Now, let’s take a look at some of the prospects to keep an eye on during this year’s tournament.

 

Canada

 

A perennial favorite and powerhouse, Team Canada will look to repeat as gold medal champions. They’ve got a ton of firepower from the front and back-end and will look to utilize their skill and establish a fast-paced tempo not dissimilar to the “New NHL”. Canada is always fun to watch because there are usually a couple of players each year that take huge steps forward in their development and become household names. Who will this year’s breakout be? If I was to pick, I’d invest in Ian Mitchell. He’s only owned in 6% of Fantrax leagues and had a PNHLe of 55 last year.

 

Pos	No	Player	Team	NHL Rights	PNHLe
F	22	Alexis Lafreniere	Canada Rimouski Oceanic		99
F	9	Joe Veleno	Canada Drummondville Voltigeurs	Detroit Red Wings	77
F		Brett Leason	Canada Prince Albert Raiders		70
F	8	Cody Glass	United States Portland Winterhawks	Vegas Golden Knights	69
F	27	Barrett Hayton	Canada Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds	Arizona Coyotes	68
F	26	Morgan Frost	Canada Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds	Philadelphia Flyers	63
F	14	Max Comtois*	Canada Anaheim Ducks – Drummondville Voltigeurs	Anaheim Ducks	61
F	11	Jaret Anderson-Dolan**	United States Los Angeles Kings – Spokane Chiefs	Los Angeles Kings	58
F	17	Nick Suzuki	Canada Owen Sound Attack	Montreal Canadiens	57
F	21	Owen Tippett	Canada Mississauga Steelheads	Florida Panthers	46
F	23	Jack Studnicka	Canada Oshawa Generals	Boston Bruins	36
F	16	MacKenzie Entwistle	Canada Hamilton Bulldogs	Chicago Blackhawks	34
F	15	Shane Bowers	United States Boston University	Colorado Avalanche	28
D	24	Ty Smith	United States Spokane Chiefs	New Jersey Devils	76
D	2	Evan Bouchard	Canada London Knights	Edmonton Oilers	72
D	3	Josh Brook	Canada Moose Jaw Warriors	Montreal Canadiens	63
D	5	Ian Mitchell	United States University of Denver	Chicago Blackhawks	52
D	4	Jared McIsaac	Canada Halifax Mooseheads	Detroit Red Wings	52
D	6	Noah Dobson	Canada Acadie-Bathurst Titan	New York Islanders	31
D	18	Markus Phillips	Canada Owen Sound Attack	Los Angeles Kings	16

 

* Max Comtois’ PNHLe is combined between Anaheim and Drummondville

** Jaret Anderson-Dolan’s PNHLe is from last year with the Spokane Chiefs because he hasn’t met minimum number of games this year with either Spokane or the LA Kings.

 

The loss of Alex Formenton and Gabe Vilardi due to injury opened the door for 17-year-old Alexis Lafreniere to make the squad, and he will be thrust into the limelight in his home country. Despite his age, he certainly doesn’t play a timid game and is expected to be the front-runner for the first-overall pick in 2020. Lafreniere leads all prospects in PNHLe and was the only player to surpass Elias Pettersson in 2017-18. He’s the real deal!

 

 

 

Czech Republic

 

The strength of the Czechs will come from their top line, which may be the most fearsome threesome in the entire tournament. Filip Zadina – Martin Necas – Martin Kaut will look to establish dominance in the offensive zone while the rest of the team will try to eliminate chances in their own end. If Jakub Lauko can provide secondary scoring, the Czech team could find their way into the medal round. They invited the most North American developed prospects this year compared to any other dating back to 2005 – the last time they won a medal.

 

Pos.	No.	Player	Team	NHL Rights	PNHLe
F	88	Martin Nečas	United States Carolina Hurricanes – Charlotte Checkers	Carolina Hurricanes	58
F	18	Filip Zadina	United States Grand Rapids Griffins	Detroit Red Wings	52
F		Jachym Kondelik	United States University of Connecticut	Nashville Predators	45
F		Jakub Lauko	Canada Rouyn-Noranda Huskies	Boston Bruins	43
F	16	Martin Kaut	United States Colorado Eagles	Colorado Avalanche	37
F	27	Ostap Safin*	Canada Halifax Mooseheads	Edmonton Oilers	30
F		Krystof Hrabik	United States Tri City Americans		30
D		Jakub Galvas	Czech Republic HC Olomouc	Chicago Blackhawks	N/A
D		Radim Salda	Canada Rimouski Océanic	Tampa Bay Lightning	36
D		Filip Král	United States Spokane Chiefs	Toronto Maple Leafs	23
D		Daniel Bukač	Canada Niagara IceDogs	Boston Bruins	12

 

* It looks like Ostap Safin will not be able to participate due to injury.

 

Despite a slow start in terms of adjustment in the AHL, Martin Necas has settled in and is rocketing up the rookie scoring leader-board. His current PNHLe of 58 is only the floor in terms of offensive production and he’ll be a full-time NHLer next season. The duo of Necas and Svechnikov could one day be a part of one of the most dynamic lines in the NHL.

 

 

 

Denmark

 

The Danes will look to provide some upsets over the course of the tournament and try to avoid relegation, but there is not much worry of them advancing to the playoff stages. They will rely heavily on their top goalie, Mads Søgaard, who is having a great season in the WHL with the Medicine Hat Tigers.

 

Pos.	No.	Player	Team	NHL Rights	PNHLe
F	27	Phillip Schultz	Canada Victoria Royals		17
F	16	Jonas Røndbjerg	Sweden Växjö Lakers	Vegas Golden Knights	7
F	17	Lucas Andersen	Sweden Karlskrona HK		2
D	7	Jeppe Urup Mogensen	United States Sioux Falls Stampede		9
D	3	Malte Setkov	Sweden Malmö Redhawks	Detroit Red Wings	4
D	8	Daniel Andersen	Sweden Linköpings HC		4

 

Jonas Rondbjerg, the Vegas third round pick in 2017, was expected to take a step forward in the SHL this season but has only been able to post a single goal and an assist so far this season. He could use this tournament to build confidence while playing against players his own age.