Projecting Prospect Point Potential Using PNHLe – October 2018

Mason Black

2018-10-24

 

The second installment of using PNHLe as a statistic to predict future prospect potential at the NHL level, takes a look at some of the names that are providing early returns and having immediate success in their respective leagues. You can click here if you’d like to take a look at last month’s article which outlined some tiered player’s to keep an eye on after they finished last season displaying decent NHL point potential. Elias Pettersson, Ryan Merkley, Jordy Bellerive and Stelio Mattheos have all been off to fast starts. 

 

Caution: PNHLe is a stat that fluctuates drastically early on in a season, and a single game can increase/decrease the value by a substantial amount. Generally, after the 20-game mark the stat tends to level out for the remainder of the season. 

 

Let’s take a look at some NHL prospects that have been very hot early on in the season:

 

Cale Makar – Colorado Avalanche

PNHL: 130

Fantrax Owned: 36%

 

The former fourth overall pick had many skeptics arguing that Colorado reached too far to grab him in the 2017 entry draft after he posted only 21 points in 34 games in his freshman year with UMass (Amherst). A closer look indicated that UMass was one of the younger teams in the NCAA that lacked top-end talent outside of their two defensive studs – the other being San Jose Sharks second round pick Mario Ferraro.

 

Makar is proving critics wrong and has found the score sheet eight times in his first four games. Granted it’s still very early in the season and there is virtually no way that he will be able to continue a two points per game pace, but he’s looked much more comfortable and is leading the Minutemen on the ice and off as he’s been named captain in his sophomore season.

 

 

 

Scott Perunovich – St. Louis Blues

PNHLe: 105

Fantrax Owned: 6%

 

The Blues may have found a gem in the second round when they selected Perunovich with their second pick of the 2018 draft. A quick look at his trophy case in the past year shows just how much hardware this young man picked up after being passed over in his initial NHL entry draft: NCAA Championship, All-Tournament Team, NCHC All-Rookie Team, NCHC Best Offensive Defenseman, First All-Star Team, NCHC Rookie of the Year, (West) First All-American Team, Top NCAA Rookie (Tim Taylor Award) and a World Junior Championship Bronze Medal. Did I mention that he led the top team in the nation in scoring… as a defenseman!

 

Perunovich has carried that confidence into the 2018 season where he’s put up 10 points in his first six games on a Minnesota-Duluth team that has a reasonable shot at repeatin