Prospect Ramblings: What is a second-round pick worth via trade? (Feb 7 2018)

Joel Henderson

2018-02-07

What is a second-round pick worth via trade? 

 

Why not keep the pick and draft?

I was in conversation on Twitter this week over Calgary's acquisition of Curtis Lazar last season. At the time, it was strange to pick up another asset that they would have to protect in the expansion draft, particularly because Lazar had one point in 33 games at the time from 2016-17.

 

Before Trade: 36 points in 176 games for Ottawa

After Trade: 8 points in 43 games for Calgary.

 

There were plenty of explanations given, but the most common had to do with the questionable value of a second-round pick. As a Flames prospect follower, it's true, you don't know exactly what you are going to get from a second-round pick. As a fan, you have no idea what kind of players your team is going to draft either. Some years you grab Dillon Dube and Tyler Parsons and some years you select Mason McDonald and Hunter Smith. Lazar creates the debate of what constitutes value of an NHL player trade for the pick. If the player is a 4th liner, aren't they replaceable via waivers or the AHL?  

The Calgary Flames seeming dislike picks in the second round. They've traded a conditional 2nd round in the Mike Smith trade as well as two, second-round picks in the Travis Hamonic acquisition.  

Without looking specifically into the draft and how the value of a draft pick shakes out in comparison to first or other rounds (there are many other pieces that talk about draft pick value), let's take a quick look on what value a second-round pick holds in the trade market over the last four or five seasons.  

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First off, as best we can, let's get rid of trades that involve multiple multiple multiple pieces.  

Take the deadline trade for Eric Staal for example. It cost the Rangers two second's and a prospect taken in the third round (Aleksi Saarela) to get his services for the playoff push. That doesn't necessarily tell us much about the value of a second-round pick.  

Here are the three categories I found. We can look at them.  

  1. Deadline expiring vets, (usually 3rd