Nemec or Jiricek: Who Is More Valuable in Fantasy?

Caleb Kerney

2022-10-16

One of the biggest debates coming from the past 2022 Draft Class was determining the top defender. Most pundits landed on either Simon Nemec or David Jiricek as the top potential draftee of that position, with the odd person citing Denton Mateychuk or Lane Hutson as the best rearguard from this class. 

While it will take years to truly discover the answer to this query I’d like to settle a different one: who is more valuable in dynasty fantasy leagues today?

Prospecting Models

First, we’ll look at their statistical performance from their draft year. Dobber Hockey’s Frozen Tools, InStat and Elite Prospects were referenced throughout this entire article.

Simon Nemec

Nemec recorded 26 points in 39 games, and only one of those points was a goal. He played for HK Nitra in the Tipos Extraliga based in Slovakia. For starters, what he did in this league has never been done by someone of his age and position before. He followed it up with a fantastic playoff performance to the tune of 17 points in 19 games including five goals.

 

Here Byron Bader (the creator of the Hockey Prospecting Model) proclaims that his model has never seen this great of an outlier performance from a draft eligible player in the history of his model. His model only goes back to 1990, but that’s a large enough sample to understand how remarkable Nemec was. 

HP (Hockey Prospecting) gives Nemec a 62% chance of being a star and 97% chance of being an NHLer. HP defines a star defender as a player who averages over 0.45+PPG and an NHLer as having played over 200 games.

David Jiricek

Jiricek