Prospect Ramblings: Do Not Give Up on These Young Players

Pat Quinn

2022-02-13

 

 

Welcome to my prospect ramblings and this week I want to highlight young players who Fantasy GMs may be giving up on. I am looking in to this as a Fantasy GM who is on the cusp of competing with young players. This is the opposite of someone trying to win because if you are trying to win do not pull a Ken Holland and say “that is too much” when parting with prospects, picks and young players, you got to go all in to win. Additionally, with defensemen always being tricky I am just going to focus on forwards.

See the end of this article for a little surprise as well.

 

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Joel Farabee

  • Games played: 140
  • Points per Game year to year: 0.40, 0.69, 0.55
  • At 6-0 and 183 lbs. (previously 164 lbs.)
  • It appears Farabee put on around 20 lbs. this off season (NHL site lists him at 183, other sites still have him at 164/163) which can affect the way players play with additional weight and muscle as everything moves differently. Some number here may be incorrect
  • Seeing an additional minute of ice time this season (up from 16 to 17) Farabee has seen his numbers dip slightly and does not look to be fulfilling his potential. The Flyers just stink this year and it is just dragging every player down, and GMs are likely frustrated with their Flyer players
  • Based on the Breakout Threshold, Farabee still has around 60 games to get to 200. He is out until late February and should get in 20-30 more NHL games so next season is when you should get your better production

 

Filip Zadina

  • Games played: 132
  • Points per Game year to year: 0.33 (nine games), 0.54, 0.39, and 0.30
  • At 6-0 and 197 lbs.
  • Raymond jumped him and has turned Zadina in to an afterthought. They are different types of players though. Zadina will not get the point totals Raymond will but he will get more goals, I still see him as a 30+ goal guy but he really needs to up his shot totals this 2.0-2.1 fluctuation per year has got to stop, he needs to do all he can to maintain around 3+ a game for a full season
  • Based on the Breakout Threshold, Zadina needs around 68 more NHL games and should get 36 more games this season. Add in a healthy Vrana and that would make Zadina a great buy low ASAP
  • If you are the GM in my fantasy league who I keep sending offers to for Zadina, do not listen to any of the above, he is bad, trade him to me

 

Kirby Dach

  • Games played: 126
  • Points per Game year to year: 0.36 0.56 (18 games played), and 0.39
  • At 6-4 and 197lbs.
  • Dach will take a little longer to produce as he is on the larger size of the Breakout Threshold which estimates his production really begin to benefit fantasy GMs around the 400 games played mark, which is 274 games away or around 3+ seasons of hockey. It should be sooner as Dach has the potential to play with elite wingers
  • If he can stay locked to Kane he should produce much sooner but that production will likely begin to happen within a year as his pts/g should start to improve starting next season, just will not be by a large margin

 

Owen Tippett

  • Games played: 93
  • Points per Game year to year: 0.14 (7 games in 2017-2018), then three years later, 0.40, and 0.34
  • At 6-1 and 207 lbs.
  • Here I thought Tippett was closer to 150 games, it really feels like he has been in the NHL for a long time. Unfortunately, he is not developing fast enough for the Panthers to really keep up with where the team’s roster is. He plays top nine but is not producing well, I can see him being moved for a wing upgrade to finish the season in Florida (though it probably is not needed)
  • Based on the Breakout Threshold, Tippett will need 107 games but he is really on the cusp or the 200 game and the 400-game type of player. Being a larger player, I can see it taking longer for Tippett to be productive. It would also help if he shot the puck more as he will be much more of an NHL asset if he shot the puck a lot more and used his size on the wing. I would give him two seasons before his production beings depending on if he gets traded or not, but do not give up on him

 

A New York Trifecta:

Kaapo Kakko

  • Games played: 151
  • Points per Game year to year: 0.35, 0.35, and 0.38
  • At 6-3 and 205 lbs.
  • Concerning: 1.7, 1.7 to now 1.5 shots per game
  • Ice time is actually up under Gallant by 1.5 minutes a game, likely due to having to put someone with skill in the top six and not more grinders
  • Based on the Breakout Threshold, Kakko is between the 200-game average forward and 400 monster forward mark, not to mention the coaches seem to never have a lot of faith in him. The 200 mark should be good for increased production, since he is very good, but he just seems so inconsistent. I would probably expect him to improve his ppg over the next two seasons and his “I am here now” season will likely be 2023-2024

Is sadly out longer than anticipated though:

 

Alexis Lafrenière

  • Games played: 101
  • Points per Game year to year: 0.38 and 0.29
  • At 6-2 and 196 lbs.
  • Concerning: 1.2 shots per game in each of his first two seasons, along with ice time hovering between 13.5 to 14 minutes per game
  • In a parallel world I wonder how much better Lafrenière would be this season if he was not in the NHL last season and instead was overseas. His impact would likely be far greater (so he is a very good buy low if you can) now. Not to mention, thanks to covid his development time has been hindered and people seem to forget that, even as a #1 selection.
  • Lafrenière fits the 200 game BT and should start producing better next season, but his best production should pop when Kakko’s does as well. Get him while you can

 

Filip Chytil

  • Games played: 223
  • Points per Game year to year: 0.38 (eight games), 0.31, 0.38, 0.52, and 0.29
  • At 6-3 and 210 lbs. (Chytil seriously does not look this large)
  • Concerning: Never shooting more than 1.9 sog/g and seeing his ice time dip each year since 2019-2020. Last season could have been due to his injuries but Gallant reduced his ice time by around 30 seconds this season having him hover around the 12:40 mark. Additionally, not being that great on faceoffs
  • I am a Chytil fan and people forget he is only 22. He also seems to be getting hurt every season which is no good for development, and seems planted in the 3C role. I think there is more there but it may not come around until he hits 400 games which is 2+ seasons away. He will likely be a nice waiver scoop for a fantasy GM if he can ever begin to reach his previous perceived potential
  • Note: I am probably just stubbornly holding out hope on Chytil so take what I said with a grain of salt

 

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Extremely early Men’s Olympic Hockey playing Prospects to Hype Add:

  • Ivan Fedotov (PHI)
  • Sean Farrell (MTL)
  • Ben Meyers (FA)

 

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Thanks for reading, follow my twitter: @FHPQuinn

Pat Quinn

 

 

 

 

 

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