Welcome to the Thursday ramblings, thanks to my last month series on players drafted too high, developed improperly, or injured (see here for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017-2019) it gave me a new idea on a series. I want to look at the decades of drafting from the North American leagues that are not the CHL or NCAA, so I will look at the BCHL, AJHL, USHL, USNTDP, and other leagues seen below. This may become a big series to research and write so I have something different set up for next week, so I can get some extra work and redefining completed.

 

My intro for this will be deciding if the players drafted in the first round from the leagues between 2009 and 2019 are bust, not a bust, or too soon to tell (but I will decide if they count as a bust or not with their current development path), and then showing the results at the end. Bust basically means they did not make the NHL for a long period of time, there are circumstances surrounding many players of course, but I will not get in to that.

 

Before I begin, here is my #GoodTweet of the week:

 

 

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2009

 

Nick Leddy – 16^th overall Minnesota (High-MN)

• Not a bust, still a good top four defenseman

Louis Leblanc – 18^th overall Montreal (USHL)

• Bust

Chris Kreider – 19^th overall New York Rangers (High-MA)

• Not a bust, you see that new contract?

Jordan Schroeder – 22^nd overall Vancouver (Big Ten)

• Bust

Kyle Palmieri – 26^th overall Anaheim (USNTDP)

• Not a bust, great Devils player!

Dylan Olsen – 28^th overall Chicago (AJHL)

• Bust

 

 

2010

 

Jack Campbell – 11^th overall Dallas (USHL)

• Bust, in the sense that he was supposed to be a starting goalie
  • Not a bust, in that he is a quality back-up

Jaden Schwartz – 14^th overall St. Louis (USHL)

• Not a bust

Derek Forbort – 15^th overall LA (USHL)

• Not a bust (barely)

Nick Bjustad – 19^th overall Florida (High-MN)

• Not a bust

Beau Bennett – 20^th overall Pittsburgh (BCHL)

• Bust, damn injuries

Jarred Tinordi – 22^nd overall Montreal (USHL)

• Bust, he is more of a replacement defenseman as he does not stick in the NHL

Kevin Hayes – 24^th overall Chicago (High-MA)

• Not a bust, so much Philadelphia money

Charlie Coyle – 28^th overall San Jose (EJHL)

• Not a bust

Brock Nelson – 30^th overall New York Islanders (High-MN)

• Not a bust

 

 

2011

 

Jamie Oleksiak – 14^th overall Dallas (H-East)

• Not a bust, he stays in the lineup enough but he is on the edge

J.T. Miller – 15^th overall New York Rangers (USHL)

• Not a bust

Tyler Biggs – 22^nd overall Toronto (USHL)

• Bust

 

 

2012

 

Jacob Trouba – 9^th overall Winnipeg (USHL)

• Not a bust

Zemgus Girgensons – 14^th overall Buffalo (USHL)

• Not a bust, made the all-star team and is frequently in the lineup still (somehow)

Mark Jankowski – 21^st overall Calgary (High-QC)

• Not a bust, he is an NHL player

Michael Matheson – 23^rd overall Florida (USHL)

• Not a bust, even though it is unknown to John Quenville what position he plays

Jordan Schmaltz – 25^th overall St. Louis (USHL)

• Bust, cannot stick in the NHL yet

Brady Skjei – 28^th overall New York Rangers (USHL)

• Not a bust

Sefan Matteau – 29^th overall New Jersey (USHL)

• Bust

 

 

2013

 

Michael McCarron – 25^th overall Montreal (USHL)

• Bust

 

 

2014

 

Dylan Larkin – 15^th overall Detroit (USHL)

• Not a bust

Sonny Milano – 16^th overall Columbus (USHL)

• Not a bust, finally sticking in the NHL and Anaheim may be the perfect spot for him

Alex Tuch – 18^th overall Minnesota (USHL)

• Not a bust

Nick Schmaltz – 20^th overall Chicago (USHL)

• Not a bust (and better than Dylan Strome… until I am proved wrong but I do not think I will be)

 

 

2015

 

Jack Eichel – 2^nd overall Buffalo (H-East)

• Not a bust

Noah Hanifin – 5^th overall Carolina (H-East)

• Not a bust (overrated in fantasy though)

Zach Weresnski – 8^th overall Columbus (Big Ten)

• Not a bust

Kyle Connor – 17^th overall Winnipeg (USHL)

• Not a bust

Colin White – 21^st overall Ottawa (USHL)

• Not a bust

Brock Boeser – 23^rd overall Vancouver (USHL)

• Not a bust

Jack Roslovic – 25^th overall Winnipeg (USHL)

• Not a bust, also not given much of an opportunity

 

 

2016

 

Clayton Keller – 7^th overall Arizona (USHL)

• Not a bust

Tyson Jost – 10^th overall Colorado (BCHL)

• Not a bust, bust should be due to his hype and draft position

Charles McAvoy – 14^th overall Boston (H-East)

• Not a bust

Luke Kunin – 15^th overall Minnesota (Big Ten)

• Not a bust, slightly too soon to tell though

Dante Fabbro – 17^th overall Nashville (BCHL)

• Not a bust

Kieffer Bellows – 19^th overall New York Islanders (USHL)

• Bust, as f right now but highly likely he is a player

Dennis Cholowski – 20^th overall Detroit (BCHL)

• Not a bust, needs to get in to the line up though

Riley Tufte – 25^th overall Dallas (High-MN)

• Bust

Tage Thompson – 26^th overall St. Louis (H-East)

• Bust, can still turn it around

Trent Frederic – 29^th overall Boston (USHL)

• Too soon to tell, but was drafted as a third line player (put as bust right now as you should not draft for your bottom line in the first round of the draft)

 

 

2017

 

Cale Makar – 4^th overall Colorado (AJHL)

• Not a bust

Casey Mittelstadt – 8^th overall Buffalo (High-MN)

• Bust, as of right now but this can be turned around in to a season

Joshua Norris – 19^th overall San Jose (USNTDP)

• Too soon to tell (development shows not a bust)

Ryan Poehling – 25^th overall Montreal (NCHC)

• Too soon to tell (development shows not a bust)

Jake Ottinger – 26^th overall Dallas (H-East)

• Too soon to tell (development shows not a bust)

Shane Bowers – 28^th overall Ottawa (USHL)

• Too soon to tell (development shows bust since he is more of a bottom-line player, I could be 100% wrong in two years)

Eeli Tolvanen – 30^th overall Nashville (USHL)

• Too soon to tell (This feels like a bust for me with Nashville killing offense somehow these days, and him slowly adapting to the AHL, but I still feel he can make it. Needs to step it up)

 

 

2018

 

Brady Tkachuk – 4^th overall Ottawa (H-East)

• Not a bust

Quinn Hughes – 7^th overall Vancouver (Big Ten)

• Not a bust

Oliver Whalstrom – 11^th overall New York Islanders (USNTDP)

• Too soon to tell (not a bust with his current development)

Joel Farabee – 14^th overall Philadelphia (USNTDP)

• Not a bust

Jay O’Brien – 19^th overall Philadelphia (High-MA)

• Too soon to tell (bust with me not liking his current development)

K’Ander Miller – 22^nd overall New York Rangers (USNTDP)

• Too soon to tell (not a bust with his current development)

Jacon Bernard-Docker – 26^th overall Ottawa (AJHL)

• Too soon to tell (not a bust with his current development)

 

 

2019

 

Jack Hughes – 1^st overall New Jersey (USNTDP)

• Not a bust

Alex Turcotte – 5^th overall LA (USNTDP)

• Too soon to tell (not a bust but needs to pick it up)

Matthew Boldy – 12^th overall Minnesota (USNTDP)

• Too soon to tell (not a bust, that last half of the season really saved him here)

Spencer Knight – 13^th overall Florida (USNTDP)

• Too soon to tell (played great so far, but you really should not draft a goalie high, still not a bust)

Cameron York – 14^th overall Philadelphia (USNTDP)

• Too soon to tell (not a bust with current development)

Cole Caufield – 15^th overall Montreal (USNTDP) 

• Too soon to tell (not a bust with current development)

Alex Newhook – 16^th overall Colorado (BCHL)

• Too soon to tell (not a bust with current development)

John Beecher – 30^th overall Boston (USNTDP)

• Too soon to tell (bust as you should not draft a bottom six player in the first round)

Ryan Johnson – 31^st overall Buffalo (USHL)

• Too soon to tell (not a bust with current development)

 

 

Results

 

This will likely be how the series is laid out. Except it will be one of the leagues listed above, all of the drafted players from 2009 and 2019, and I will analyze how well the players drafted from the league did and by round. I hope this turns out well. I may have to slit up the USHL though as lots of players appear to be drafted from there.

 

Bust	Not Bust	League	Total	Bust %	Not Bust %	Total % Drafted
2	3	High-MN	5	40%	60%	7.14%
1	2	High-MA	3	33.33%	66.67%	4.29%
1	6	H-East	7	14.29%	85.71%	10.00%
1	3	Big Ten	4	25%	75%	5.71%
0	1	NCHC	1	0	100%	1.43%
11	17	USHL	28	39.29%	60.71%	40.00%
1	11	USNTDP	12	8.33%	91.67%	17.14%
1	2	AJHL	3	33.33%	66.67%	4.29%
1	4	BCHL	5	20%	80%	7.14%
0	1	EJHL	1	0	100%	1.43%
0	1	High-QC	1	0	100%	1.43%
	Total drafted		70

 

The majority of first round selections were from the USHL and USNTDP at 57.14%, and the USNTDP has the best percentage record for players not being busts.

 

 

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I hope everyone looks forward to this, but next week I have something else planned before I get going with this.

 

Follow my twitter: @FHPQuinn