PNHLe February 2020

Mason Black



The Bakersfield Condors hosted the Ontario Reign on Field Trip Day at Rabbobank Arena in Bakersfield, CA. Photo by Owen Main – 11/29/18

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As the NHL trade deadline quickly approaches chances are your fantasy deadline is not far behind, so I thought it would be beneficial to try to use PNHLe to identify prospects that are great buy-low candidates. Whether you are in a fantasy rebuild or want to restock your prospect cupboards, now is one of the best times of the year to strike and potentially catch an uninformed GM off-guard.


PNHLe is a stat that attempts to project a prospect’s scoring potential at the NHL level, however, a single season’s value should never be taken without context. It is more useful to look at PNHLe progression over several years to determine a trend that has a significant probability of coming to realization.


There are anomalies within the stat that can be used to pinpoint specific prospects whose value should be considered as outliers and mark the perfect point in time to buy-low, or sell-high. One of the most consistent trends in PNHLe is that players who make the jump from a junior organization into a professional league often see a substantial drop in their PNHLe in their rookie season as they rise up the ranks. There are a variety of reasons for this, but most are related to the fact that they receive fewer prime minutes, responsibility and lower deployment, which contributes to a lower overall point totals. For GMs that evaluate solely on player production and scoring leaderboards, these prospects provide the perfect opportunity to return significant gains on your investment.


Here is a list of prospects that you may want to target whose value may be at a low point. Obviously, some players listed below may have more intrinsic value, especially for GMs that have been patient in their development. There are a variety of tiers depending on what type of player you are trying to target, but I decided to organize them by PNHLe in descending order.


I have included their stats and PNHLe chart and I have broken up each year to show the individual rates if a player has been traded or played in different leagues. You can follow each of the player links to their DobberProspects profile to get more in-depth analysis from the outstanding authors and scouts that contribute.


Hopefully you get some use out of the information posted, and I would love to hear what the return and cost was if you decided to target any of these players and were able to acquire them!





Moritz Seider – Detroit Red Wings (53) – 19 points in 43 AHL games is a decent clip for a veteran AHL defenseman, but it is hard to put into perspective how impressive those numbers are for the dominant young defender. Seider is on pace to comfortably end up with the second highest points per game pace ever posted by an 18-year-old in the AHL. It is not only finding the score sheet that is making people turn their heads, but it is his abrasive side that will make him a huge asset in multi-cat fantasy leagues. When he was selected sixth overall many draft prognosticators considered it a reach, but he is making Steve Yzerman and his scouting staff look like geniuses. He will cost an arm and a leg to acquire the budding star, but I think it will be more than worth it when all is said and done.




Owen Tippett – Florida Panthers (48) – plain and simple, Tippett is a pure sniper. He is a natural goal scorer that will reward teams whose league provides extra value for goals. Although his PNHLe of 48 is probably not drastically far