image courtesy of PucksandPitchforks
Last year, DobberPropsects veteran Joel Henderson wrote this piece about the value of 2nd round picks at the trade deadline. We all know that the big names on the market will likely fetch 1st-rounders, but teams looking for a little depth without breaking the bank are more easily parted from a later pick. There’s no reason to expect anything different this year.
Some of the historical trades Joel referenced in last year’s article in which teams give up a 2nd included returns such as:
- Playoff veteran forwards such as Daniel Winnik, Lee Stempniak, or Brian Boyle
- Blueline depth such as Ron Hainsey, Kimmo Timonen, or Roman Polak
- Reclamation projects such as Curtis Lazar, or Sven Baertschi
At the deadline last year, the names were:
- Michael Grabner
- Tomas Plekanec
- Petr Mrazek (this actually turned into a 3rd later based on conditions)
(several other 2nd-round-picks were in play, but were not the main value in the deal)
With those three picks, the players drafted were Jonathan Tychonick, Jacob Olofsson, and Seth Barton respectively. Obviously it’s way too soon to judge the value of those particular picks, but lets look at the 2015 and 2016 drafts to see what the success rate is in the 2nd rounds…
2015 NHL Entry Draft
2nd Round Stars: Sebastian Aho (35)
Other notables: Christian Fischer (32), Travis Dermott (34), Mackenzie Blackwood (42), Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson (45), Daniel Sprong (46), Jordan Greenway (50), Rasmus Andersson (53), Oliver Kylington (60).
So, in this particular lot, 3% of picks were a star (1/30), and 27% of picks are showing significant value currently (8/30), for a total chance of value at roughly 30%. This number will certainly change as players continue (or fail) to develop.
2016 NHL Entry Draft
2nd Round Stars: TBD
Other notables: Jordan Kyrou (35), Alex DeBrincat (39), Sam Girard (47), Carter Hart (48), Kale Clague (51), Filip Hronek (53), Dillon Dube (56)
It’s too soon to call anyone a true star from this draft, but some will surely emerge from the second group. In this draft, the odds of finding significant value was roughly 23% (7/30). Again, this number will change as players continue or fail to develop.
So, if your team was in the playoff hunt, and these prospects were ALREADY in your organization (rather than hypothetical), would you trade them for the likes of Tomas Plekanec or Michael Grabner for a playoff run? Probably not, depending on how realistic your chances are.
Luckily, the picks are hypothetical only, and based on the names above, the odds of finding significant value in the 2nd round looks to be roughly 25%.
Would you trade a 25% chance at Dillon Dube for a Tomas Plekanec or Michael Grabner? Maybe. Would you trade a 25% chance at Sebastian freakin’ Aho for Tomas Plekanec or Michael Grabner? Hell no.
But those are the gambles the GMs make. So come trade deadline when you see teams throwing around picks like they’re magic wishes that may or may not come true, remember the odds.
And just so I don’t sound too down on these moves, remember that out of the veteran names I’ve thrown out above, a couple actually worked. Ron Hainsey was an important part of the Penguins’ cup that year. Kimmo Timonen didn’t have a great playoff run by the end, but he was a key member of the Chicago dressing room that could get anything done. When you win a cup, your moves to get there are justified.
FIRST NHL GOALS TIME!
Erik Cernak makes his bench happy by smartly joining the rush:
Teddy Blueger steps into this one to blast in his first.
Thank you for reading, and good luck keep the trade talks civilized as we approach the deadline!
- Prospect Deep Dive: Matthew Boldy
- Prospect Ramblings: Camp Rosters for U18 Worlds (April 8)
- Prospect Ramblings: First Update from the U18 Worlds (Apr 20)
- Prospects Ramblings: The Shane Wright Factor
- QMJHL Report: First Round of the 2019 Playoffs
- WHL Report: First Round of the playoffs... and beyond
- Prospect Ramblings: Time for AHL Playoffs
- Prospect Ramblings: Second Update from the U18 Worlds (Apr 22)