September 32-in-32: Detroit Red Wings
Ben Gehrels
2024-09-12
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Welcome to the September edition of the DobberProspects 32-in-32 Series. This month, we are diving into the depth of each organization, looking at their recent graduates, risers, fallers and top-20 prospects.
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Detroit should have one or two key players graduating to the big club each year for the next several years. Their developing brand as a fast, physical, versatile team is becoming more clearly defined with each passing year and each successive draft. While Detroit’s system is generally perceived to be lacking high-end pieces because of this blueprint at the draft in recent years, the players in question—most of whom have the dreaded (in fantasy) “two-way” label—continue to find new offensive gears and reach new heights.
The Red Wings approach to drafting lately has been a masterclass in finding high-floor players with potentially-limited-but-uncertain ceilings who already impact the game positively but still have room to grow and develop. Many of their picks don’t have the shiniest numbers in their draft years, but check in on them a year or two later and they are generally progressing just how you would hope. If they can continue to draft well and keep their pipeline stocked as their high-end prospects make the jump to become full time Red Wings, this team can contend for a long time.
Let’s take a quick look at who is likely to be part of that core and who might be on their way out.
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Graduating Players: Minors to NHL
Jonatan Berggren, LW/RW
Berggren, 24, definitively proved his NHL readiness last season in the minors, leading Grand Rapids (AHL) in points with 56—a total nearly 20 points higher than his nearest teammate. He also led the team in shots (2.9 per game), which suggests he will provide help in that category unlike many smaller playmaking winger types. He also racked up a healthy number of penalty minutes, surprisingly tying for second on the team in PIMs, so he is clearly not afraid to mix things up.
With Berggren’s 19 PPP representing 20% of the team’s total production with the man advantage last year, the Griffins’ power play will need to find a new engine next year. Berggren is going to be sticking with the Red Wings full time in 2024-25. Even if he kicks off the year playing down the lineup, do not be surprised to see the skilled Swede ascend into the top six before the end of the year. Dobber has his upside at 82 points in the Guide, higher than many top prospects. Point-per-game upside with a very short timeline.
Simon Edvinsson, LHD
Although he spent most of the year with the Griffins, Edvinsson played the final 14 games of the year with Detroit on the bottom pair with Jeff Petry. While on paper it may seem like he did not progress much in his second AHL campaign, he posted slight increases all across the board— points, shots, PPP, and plus/minus—suggesting he had a greater overall impact on the game and is figuring out how to drive play at the pro level.
His NHL audition in 2023-24 showed that Edvinsson has a real shot at being a prized asset in multi-cat formats. He put up over 1.5 hits and blocks per game and broke even in terms of driving play (49% expected even-strength goal share), demonstrating that he is ready for a larger role on this team. Like Berggren, his time is now.
Graduating Players: Junior College to Pro
Danielson’s scoring in his Draft+1 campaign took off after a midseason trade to Portland. He led the Winterhawks all the way to the WHL finals with 24 points—seven more than his next closest teammate—but endured a heartbreaking sweep against a loaded Moose Jaw squad. The ninth-overall pick from 2023 has an above-average skill set across the board and impacts the game significantly at both ends of the ice. Danielson shone in last year’s NHL preseason and will likely do so again next month. But expect modest-but-solid numbers in 2024-25 as an AHL rookie, much like Marco Kasper’s 35 points in 71 games this past campaign, along with a handful of games at the top level.
After destroying the J20 Nationell and putting up just shy of half-a-point per game in the Allsvenskan, Brandsegg-Nygard is graduating to Sweden’s top division in his Draft+1. His incredible playoff performance (10 points in 12 games) and strong showing in the SHL preseason mean he has a ton of momentum right now. It has been hard to miss his one-timer lately, regardless of the competition. He is making it look easier out there right now and showing that concerns at the draft about his lack of dynamism compared to other top prospects in 2024 may have been overstated.
On top of his impressive shooting and notable physicality, he has also developed his playmaking. The hope will be that his scoring will continue to progress as the talent around him improves at higher levels.
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Risers
Buchelnikov, who just turned 21, has been a prolific producer in the Russian leagues since his Draft-1 campaign, and like Brandsegg-Nygard, he has a ton of momentum right now. Over his career, he is well above a point per game in the MHL (junior), just below that mark in the VHL (tier-two pro), and is following up a superb KHL rookie season (29 points in 55 games) with four points in his first four games to kick off 2024-25. Very impressive stuff from such a young player.
For whatever reason (size, nationality, second-round pick), Buchelnikov does not seem to be a household name in fantasy yet. But those of us who have combed through his profile want to roster him anywhere we can—as long as wait time or a crowded farm are non-issues. While he likely won’t continue scoring every game for Vityaz, the worst team in the KHL last year, he is definitely going to turn some heads and advance his stocks tremendously among prospect forwards. Get him now if you still can before the price goes up.
Honourable Mention: Axel Sandin Pellikka, RHD, Marco Kasper, C
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Fallers
The elder Dower Nilsson brother is now entering his Draft+4 campaign and has yet to show enough jam to signal NHL potential. He is currently unsigned by the Red Wings and may spend his career playing overseas in the end instead of plying his wares with Grand Rapids and eventually Detroit. He exploded in the J20 Nationell for his D+1 season (50 in 34) but has plateaued somewhat since then with two nearly identical half-point-per-game seasons in the Allsvenskan. Like his younger brother Noah (2023 3rd round), Liam is a well-rounded two-way player that will likely be boring for fantasy purposes. If he does make the NHL, it will be in a bottom-six capacity, and he likely does not have the peripheral production to balance things out and make him rosterable in most formats.
Honourable Mention: Albert Johansson, LHD, Kirill Tyutyayev, LW
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Organizational Depth Chart
| Left Wing | Center | Right Wing |
| Dmitry Buchelnikov | Marco Kasper | Jonatan Berggren |
| Carter Mazur | Nate Danielson | Michael Brandsegg-Nygard |
| Charlie Forslund | Max Plante | Elmer Söderblom |
| Kirill Tyutyayev | Liam Dower-Nilsson | Jesse Kiiskinen |
| Amadeus Lombardi | ||
| Noah Dower Nilsson | ||
| Redmond Savage |
| Left Defence | Right Defence |
| Simon Edvinsson | Axel Sandin Pellikka |
| William Wallinder | Antti Tuomisto |
| Shai Buium | Anton Johansson |
| Albert Johnasson | |
| Jared McIsaac | |
| Brady Cleveland | |
| John Whipple |
| Goalies |
| Sebastian Cossa |
| Trey Augustine |
| Gage Alexander |
| Landon Miller |
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Top 20 Fantasy Prospects
- Simon Edvinsson
- Axel Sandin Pellikka
- Jonatan Berggren
- Michael Brandsegg-Nygard
- Marco Kasper
- Sebastian Cossa
- Nate Danielson
- Trey Augustine
- Max Plante
- Dmitry Buchelnikov
- Carter Mazur
- Shai Buium
- William Wallinder
- Liam Dower-Nilsson
- Amadeus Lombardi
- Elmer Söderblom
- Charlie Forslund
- Noah Dower-Nilsson
- Brady Cleveland
- Redmond Savage
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Thanks for reading! Follow me on X @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.
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