Prospect Ramblings: Decade of Drafting (BCHL and AJHL)

Pat Quinn

2020-06-10

 

 

Welcome to the Thursday Ramblings where I begin a series, I discussed two weeks ago and had the idea for a while ago. Let me get to a quick story of how I came about this idea: For some reason I always felt like players from either the AJHL or BCHL never turn out, so I rarely took them ever in my fantasy drafts. It may have been the Beau Bennett pick that burned me but that was also due to injury stopping his NHL career. I decided since no other hockey is going on, and I cannot keep watching the same clips of prospects over and over, to look back and see how many of the players from the BCHL and AJHL turn out. Then at the same time I thought I would check out other leagues to see the success rates and post some ramblings on those.

 

I went as far back as 2008, as I cannot really predict what the 2019 draftees will turn out to be. Also, players from 2016-2018 I compared common rates of past draftees and combined that with draft round success rates from these articles completed recently and as far back as 2015 (as it is pretty common to know that success rates for players drafted crash after round one):

 

Sportsnet: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-value-nhl-draft-picks/

From Jokke Nevalainen here at Dobberprospects a couple weeks ago: https://dobberprospects.com/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

Hockey Graphs: https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/05/06/when-the-trade-market-and-draft-market-intersect-and-how-to-exploit-them/#more-3391

 

Additionally, in 2008-2012 I made the cutoff 200 games played (and they still have to be playing) and lowered the number to 100 with the same conditions for 2013-2015

 

I should have added the leagues I gathered data on were the USHL, BCHL, AJHL, USNDTP, EJHL, CJHL, OJHL, MJHL, WCHA, USMAAA, MWEHL, NAHL, CCHA, Big Ten, H-East, ECAC, NCHC, H-East, High-MA, High-MN, High-CT, High-NJ, High-WI, High-QC, High-ON, High-NH, High0MI, High-NY, and the USPHL.

 

Before I get started here is my #GoodTweet of the week: