Prospect Ramblings – Do Not Overrate Preseason Scoring

Pat Quinn

2019-09-19

Hi, to start, buy the guide before the season starts: https://dobbersports.com/product/dobbers-2019-20-fantasy-hockey-guide/

 

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Welcome to the later in the day prospect ramblings. I have been on vacation the past couple of Thursdays so my apologies for leaving everyone in the dark! I also didn’t update my leaving on twitter, but I made hilarious observations the entire time:

 

{source} <blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-lang=”en”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>They still pretty much draft the same in the first round though, just instead of reaching they take low ceiling potential players. So did they learn that??? <a href=”https://t.co/DxeQhfHHvo”>https://t.co/DxeQhfHHvo</a></p>&mdash; Pat Quinn (not that one) (@FHPQuinn) <a href=”https://twitter.com/FHPQuinn/status/1174315505009582081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>September 18, 2019</a></blockquote>{/source}

 

Alright, let us get in to it

 

 

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I bring this sup every time hockey is in preseason, but do not overrate your favorite prospect (or an unknown player) scoring in preseason because of the lesson many fantasy GMs learned back in 2005-2006: Brandon Bockenski. He had an amazing preseason playing along side Heatley and Spezza, but ultimately was never able to keep up in the NHL. He was a great AHL, and is a great, KHL scorer though. The lesson is a lot of GMs reached at their respective drafts and got burned, and year after year a preseason scoring spree overrates a few players.

 

My advice is watch and enjoy the games for what they are, exhibition, but do not follow the point totals. Watch for deployment over anything, as coaches minds can change in a heartbeat.

 

I remember watching preseason in 2017-2018 (or 2016-2017) thinking Dylan Strome was ready and getting burned. I do remember standing in the boardroom we do our draft in being super excited for a “sleeper” and alcohol was involved in my reasoning.

 

With all of that let me take a look at some of the list of current top preseason scorers for prospects (even though it is super early in to preseason):

  • Connor Garland (ARI): 1GP-2G-1A-3P; I hope he gets top nine time in Arizona, but the team is built in such a way that he could be on line 2 or line 4 and still have a chance to score. Point totals for a majority of the roster will all be eerily similar in the desert this year
  • Alexander Nylander (CHI): 2GP-1G-2A-3P; Well, well, well, look who shows up on the list. I still think there is something there with A. Nylander as he has the skill to be an NHLer but jumping to the AHL too early and injuries have set him back a bit. I also get a sense he feels he deserves to be in the NHL instead of proving he should make it. I would still keep him in the AHL for most of the season, but he is a great buy-low candidate to build on
  • Aliaksei Protas (WSH): 2GP-1G-2A-3P; A surprise to even still be in camp for Washington, as how many late third round picks stay in camp, but the big 6-5 centre is still in camp impressing. Protas has excellent vision, ok skating, and an ok shot. He needs to improve those and use his body more and he could be a force as a 2C in the future. *Note: Was sent back to the WHL today
  • Dominik Kubalik (CHI): 2GP-2G-0A-2P; He is already penned in to the opening night Chicago roster, so it is nice to see him pot some goals early on. He should be used through out the whole line-up in Chicago, so do not draft him too high, but also do not let him slip by
  • Manuel Wiederer (SJ): 1GP-2G-0A-2P; “Who?” you ask, well I do not really know either. He has yet to establish himself in the AHL so do not touch
  • Sami Niku (WPG): 1GP-0G-2A-2P; With the news recently of Big Buff maybe not returning Niku could be thrust in to a top three role in Winnipeg. He should excel but it may overwhelm him to start. This kid is good though and should not be overlooked late in drafts
  • Ivan Chekhovich (SJ): 1GP-1G-1A-2P; This kid will be a skilled scorer for S