The World Juniors is the premier hockey prospect tournament and gives fans an opportunity to see their country, and favorite NHL team’s top prospects perform in a playoff intensity induced environment smack dab in the middle of the hockey season.
As the World Junior Championship fast approaches, I thought I would compile a consolidated list of all of the teams’ most notable players ranked by their PNHLe statistics for the 2018-19 season. In the first part of this two-part series, I’d like to take a look at the countries in Group A, and although most of the team rosters have been pared down, at the time of writing this article only Canada has tentatively released their tournament line-up.
PNHLe is a stat that uses historical values from current NHL players to determine an estimate of a prospect’s eventual point potential in the NHL. There are many variables that aren’t taken into consideration in the current model (i.e., time-on-ice, player usage, primary points, line-mates, etc.), so before you lambaste me with why your favorite prospect should have a higher value, please understand that PNHLe is mainly used from a fantasy perspective to identify trends and infer player point potential over the course of several years – not the small sample of the start of the 2018-19 season.
It is a completely objective statistic where the top players usually trend upwards over an entire season, while others tend to fall off during grueling seasons and as competition gets more difficult. That being said, players generally see a decline as rookies while they adjust to more difficult leagues. Therefore, players that make the jump from the CHL to the AHL, or the Swedish SuperElit to the SHL, generally have a drop in value and production based on situational usage, and overall time-on-ice.
If you’d like to read more about the PNHLe stat you can do so here. If you notice a prospect that has not been listed, it may be because PNHLe is currently only calculated for eleven different developmental leagues (AHL, WHL, OHL, QMJHL, KHL, SHL, Liiga, NCAA, USHL, Allsvenskan and NHL). Now, let’s take a look at some of the prospects to keep an eye on during this year’s tournament.
Canada
A perennial favorite and powerhouse, Team Canada will look to repeat as gold medal champions. They’ve got a ton of firepower from the front and back-end and will look to utilize their skill and establish a fast-paced tempo not dissimilar to the “New NHL”. Canada is always fun to watch because there are usually a couple of players each year that take huge steps forward in their development and become household names. Who will this year’s breakout be? If I was to pick, I’d invest in Ian Mitchell. He’s only owned in 6% of Fantrax leagues and had a PNHLe of 55 last year.
|
Pos |
No |
Player |
Team |
NHL Rights |
PNHLe |
|
F |
22 |
Alexis Lafreniere |
Canada Rimouski Oceanic |
99 |
|
|
F |
9 |
Joe Veleno |
Canada Drummondville Voltigeurs |
Detroit Red Wings |
77 |
|
F |
Brett Leason |
Canada Prince Albert Raiders |
70 |
||
|
F |
8 |
Cody Glass |
United States Portland Winterhawks |
Vegas Golden Knights |
69 |
|
F |
27 |
Barrett Hayton |
Canada Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds |
Arizona Coyotes |
68 |
|
F |
26 |
Morgan Frost |
Canada Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds |
Philadelphia Flyers |
63 |
|
F |
14 |
Max Comtois* |
Canada Anaheim Ducks – Drummondville Voltigeurs |
Anaheim Ducks |
61 |
|
F |
11 |
Jaret Anderson-Dolan** |
United States Los Angeles Kings – Spokane Chiefs |
Los Angeles Kings |
58 |
|
F |
17 |
Nick Suzuki |
Canada Owen Sound Attack |
Montreal Canadiens |
57 |
|
F |
21 |
Owen Tippett |
Canada Mississauga Steelheads |
Florida Panthers |
46 |
|
F |
23 |
Jack Studnicka |
Canada Oshawa Generals |
Boston Bruins |
36 |
|
F |
16 |
MacKenzie Entwistle |
Canada Hamilton Bulldogs |
Chicago Blackhawks |
34 |
|
F |
15 |
Shane Bowers |
United States Boston University |
Colorado Avalanche |
28 |
|
D |
24 |
Ty Smith |
United States Spokane Chiefs |
New Jersey Devils |
76 |
|
D |
2 |
Evan Bouchard |
Canada London Knights |
Edmonton Oilers |
72 |
|
D |
3 |
Josh Brook |
Canada Moose Jaw Warriors |
Montreal Canadiens |
63 |
|
D |
5 |
Ian Mitchell |
United States University of Denver |
Chicago Blackhawks |
52 |
|
D |
4 |
Jared McIsaac |
Canada Halifax Mooseheads |
Detroit Red Wings |
52 |
|
D |
6 |
Noah Dobson |
Canada Acadie-Bathurst Titan |
New York Islanders |
31 |
|
D |
18 |
Markus Phillips |
Canada Owen Sound Attack |
Los Angeles Kings |
16 |
* Max Comtois’ PNHLe is combined between Anaheim and Drummondville
** Jaret Anderson-Dolan’s PNHLe is from last year with the Spokane Chiefs because he hasn’t met minimum number of games this year with either Spokane or the LA Kings.
The loss of Alex Formenton and Gabe Vilardi due to injury opened the door for 17-year-old Alexis Lafreniere to make the squad, and he will be thrust into the limelight in his home country. Despite his age, he certainly doesn’t play a timid game and is expected to be the front-runner for the first-overall pick in 2020. Lafreniere leads all prospects in PNHLe and was the only player to surpass Elias Pettersson in 2017-18. He’s the real deal!
Czech Republic
The strength of the Czechs will come from their top line, which may be the most fearsome threesome in the entire tournament. Filip Zadina – Martin Necas – Martin Kaut will look to establish dominance in the offensive zone while the rest of the team will try to eliminate chances in their own end. If Jakub Lauko can provide secondary scoring, the Czech team could find their way into the medal round. They invited the most North American developed prospects this year compared to any other dating back to 2005 – the last time they won a medal.
|
Pos. |
No. |
Player |
Team |
NHL Rights |
PNHLe |
|
F |
88 |
Martin Nečas |
United States Carolina Hurricanes – Charlotte Checkers |
Carolina Hurricanes |
58 |
|
F |
18 |
Filip Zadina |
United States Grand Rapids Griffins |
Detroit Red Wings |
52 |
|
F |
|
Jachym Kondelik |
United States University of Connecticut |
Nashville Predators |
45 |
|
F |
Jakub Lauko |
Canada Rouyn-Noranda Huskies |
Boston Bruins |
43 |
|
|
F |
16 |
Martin Kaut |
United States Colorado Eagles |
Colorado Avalanche |
37 |
|
F |
27 |
Ostap Safin* |
Canada Halifax Mooseheads |
Edmonton Oilers |
30 |
|
F |
|
Krystof Hrabik |
United States Tri City Americans |
|
30 |
|
D |
Jakub Galvas |
Czech Republic HC Olomouc |
Chicago Blackhawks |
N/A |
|
|
D |
Radim Salda |
Canada Rimouski Océanic |
Tampa Bay Lightning |
36 |
|
|
D |
Filip Král |
United States Spokane Chiefs |
Toronto Maple Leafs |
23 |
|
|
D |
Daniel Bukač |
Canada Niagara IceDogs |
Boston Bruins |
12 |
* It looks like Ostap Safin will not be able to participate due to injury.
Despite a slow start in terms of adjustment in the AHL, Martin Necas has settled in and is rocketing up the rookie scoring leader-board. His current PNHLe of 58 is only the floor in terms of offensive production and he’ll be a full-time NHLer next season. The duo of Necas and Svechnikov could one day be a part of one of the most dynamic lines in the NHL.
Denmark
The Danes will look to provide some upsets over the course of the tournament and try to avoid relegation, but there is not much worry of them advancing to the playoff stages. They will rely heavily on their top goalie, Mads Søgaard, who is having a great season in the WHL with the Medicine Hat Tigers.
|
Pos. |
No. |
Player |
Team |
NHL Rights |
PNHLe |
|
F |
27 |
Phillip Schultz |
Canada Victoria Royals |
17 |
|
|
F |
16 |
Jonas Røndbjerg |
Sweden Växjö Lakers |
Vegas Golden Knights |
7 |
|
F |
17 |
Lucas Andersen |
Sweden Karlskrona HK |
2 |
|
|
D |
7 |
Jeppe Urup Mogensen |
United States Sioux Falls Stampede |
|
9 |
|
D |
3 |
Malte Setkov |
Sweden Malmö Redhawks |
Detroit Red Wings |
4 |
|
D |
8 |
Daniel Andersen |
Sweden Linköpings HC |
4 |
Jonas Rondbjerg, the Vegas third round pick in 2017, was expected to take a step forward in the SHL this season but has only been able to post a single goal and an assist so far this season. He could use this tournament to build confidence while playing against players his own age.
Russia
The Russians look to make their way back to the podium again this year after being held off in 2018. Many of their NHL-drafted prospects have had a taste of games in the KHL this season, but it not enough to establish a proper PNHLe value. Make no mistake, this team is loaded with talent throughout their roster and will be a formidable opponent when the games have more meaning. A surprise cut was Dmitri Zavgorodniy, but he does have one more year of eligibility and will look to be a spark-plug for the ‘Great Bear’ next year.
|
Pos. |
No. |
Player |
Team |
NHL Rights |
PNHLe |
|
F |
Vitali Kravtsov |
Russia Traktor Chelyabinsk |
New York Rangers |
56 |
|
|
F |
Ivan Chekhovich |
Canada Baie-Comeau Drakkar |
San Jose Sharks |
52 |
|
|
F |
Alexander Khovanov |
Canada Moncton Wildcats |
Minnesota Wild |
51 |
|
|
F |
Klim Kostin |
United States San Antonio Rampage |
St. Louis Blues |
29 |
|
|
F |
Grigori Denisenko |
Russia Lokomotiv Yaroslavl |
Florida Panthers |
24 |
|
|
F |
Pavel Shen |
Russia Salavat Yulaev Ufa |
Boston Bruins |
4 |
|
|
F |
Artyom Galimov |
Russia JHC Bars |
N/A |
||
|
F |
Kirill Marchenko |
Russia SKA Saint Petersburg |
Columbus Blue Jackets |
N/A |
|
|
F |
Ivan Morozov |
Russia SKA Saint Petersburg |
Vegas Golden Knights |
N/A |
|
|
F |
Vasili Podkolzin |
Russia SKA-1946 |
N/A |
||
|
F |
Kirill Slepets |
Russia Lokomotiv Yaroslavl |
N/A |
||
|
D |
Alexander Alexeyev |
Canada Red Deer Rebels |
Washington Capitals |
54 |
|
|
D |
Dmitri Samorukov |
Canada Guelph Storm |
Edmonton Oilers |
27 |
The New York Rangers first pick in the 2018 draft will be looked at to provide the offensive engine for Team Russia and could establish himself as one of the top players at this year’s tournament. Vitali Kravtsov has had a strong campaign in the KHL to start the 2018-19 season and hopes to carry that into the World Junior Championship. He’s a flashy scorer that utilizes time and space to create dangerous scoring chances and could be a mainstay on the Rangers’ top line for years to come.
Switzerland
The Suisse are usually good for a couple of upsets every year and play a defensively sound system to limit scoring opportunities. They gave the Canadians a scare for the better part of an exhibition game and will need to capitalize on the scoring opportunities they generate in order to get out of the group stage.
|
Pos. |
No. |
Player |
Team |
NHL Rights |
PNHLe |
|
F |
Philipp Kurashev |
Canada Quebec Remparts |
Chicago Blackhawks |
50 |
|
|
F |
|
Nando Eggenberger |
Canada Oshawa Generals |
|
32 |
|
F |
|
Kyen Sopa |
Canada Niagara IceDogs |
|
28 |
|
F |
|
Valentin Nussbaumer |
Canada Shawinigan Cataractes |
|
25 |
|
D |
Nico Gross |
Canada Oshawa Generals |
New York Rangers |
22 |
|
|
D |
Tobias Geisser |
United States Hershey Bears |
Washington Capitals |
6 |
|
|
D |
|
Tim Berni |
Switzerland ZSC Lions |
Columbus Blue Jackets |
N/A |
Philipp Kurashev has been a consistent performer through his first three years in the QMJHL. The fourth round pick in last year’s draft by the Blackhawks is equally adept at setting up opportunities as he is at finding the back of the net himself. It will be a large task to propel his team to the elimination round of the tournament, but he’ll look to lead a decent supporting cast in hopes of creating a few upsets in the next couple of weeks.
If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading!
You can follow me on Twitter @NHLRankKing where I post different types of fantasy related content.
If you are interested in seeing other player profiles, a prospect’s progression and how their PNHLe stacks up against other prospects, every profile is available in a completely free iOS app that I’ve created specifically based around fantasy hockey. If you have an iPhone or iPad you can download it here. All player profile images above are taken directly from the app, which is a small sample of the overall content.
This article will be a monthly feature here at DobberProspects, so please let me know if there are specific players you’d like to see profiled.
Photo Credit to: © Matthew Murnaghan/Hockey Canada Images