Introduction to PNHLe as a Fantasy Tool

Mason Black

2018-09-30

 

When I first developed the PNHLe value it was intended almost explicitly for fantasy hockey use and identifying under-the-radar prospects before anyone else in deep keeper leagues had even heard about those players. PNHLe is a value that attempts to predict a prospect’s optimal point production at the NHL level when that player is in the prime of their career.  You can think of PNHLe as the expected ceiling a player will hit if they reach their full potential. 

 

It doesn’t come without its warts but as a prospect plays in different leagues, and on different teams, that player starts to build a pattern of their expected point production at the NHL level.  We can compare that production with NHL players that have given similar historical production – in the same league and at the same age – to project a single value… PNHLe. You can read up more on the stat, where it comes from and the methodology behind how the algorithm was created here.

 

Listed below is a range of prospects that made considerable contributions to their point production and are arranged based on likelihood of availability in your respective fantasy leagues.

 

Elias Pettersson (PNHLe – 109)

 

It would be negligent when talking about PNHLe not to bring up Vancouver Canucks top prospect Elias Pettersson and the historic year he had in 2017-18 with Växjö Lakers HC in the SHL. Pettersson broke the U20 record for most points in the SHL and a quick look at Elite Prospects top-10 displays a who’s who of Swedish superstars that he was able to outperform. In fact, Pettersson’s accomplishment landed him on top of all NHL prospects in terms of PNHLe. The only other player that had a higher PNHLe in 2017-18 was Alexis Lafreniere (110) who is draft eligible in 2020 and an early lock to go first overall.  I’m not suggesting that Pettersson is ever going to reach that potential but he’s showed nothing but brilliant progress as a prospect, is on the verge of breaking into the NHL and should be considered a Calder candidate.