Ottawa Senators: August 30 in 30
Peter Harling
2016-08-22
On the whole, the draft has not been a kind beast to the Senators this decade. While they have had a measure of success in unearthing potential gems in the later rounds, a number of their first round picks have not panned out as hoped. This tweet was included in last month’s article but it bears repeating
{source}<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sens 2011 draft was supposed to be backbone of rebuild:<br><br>Zibanejad – traded <br>Noesen – traded<br>Puempel – On two-way contract. <br>Prince – traded</p>— Ian Mendes (@ian_mendes) <a href="https://twitter.com/ian_mendes/status/755105251275993089">July 18, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>{/source}
Of the 28 picks made between 2010 and 2013, four have become NHL regulars; Mark Stone, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Curtis Lazar and Codi Ceci. With the exception of Stone, none of them have what you would consider game-breaking potential. But with strong recent drafts things look to be on the upswing
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LW |
C |
RW |
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Francis Perron |
Colin White |
Gabriel Gagne |
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Nick Paul |
Logan Brown |
Marcus Nurmi |
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Filip Ahl |
Jonathan Dahlen |
Buddy Robinson |
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Matt Puempel |
Filip Chlapik |
Chris Leblanc |
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Ryan Dzingel |
Todd Burgess |
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Max McCormick |
Robbie Baillargeron |
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D |
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D |
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Thomas Chabot |
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Frederik Claesson |
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Macoy Erkamps |
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Christian Jaros |
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Christian Wolanin |
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Andreas Englund |
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Kelly Summers |
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Miles Gendron |
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G |
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Marcus Hogberg |
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Chris Driedger |
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Matt O'Connor |
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Joel Daccord |
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Risers
It was a landmark season for the offensively gifted seventh rounder. Perron finished second in QMJHL scoring with 41 goals and 67 assists and earned the Michel Briere Trophy for league MVP. But the accolades didn’t stop there. Perron was named to the QMJHL First All-Star Team, won the Guy Lafleur Trophy as playoff MVP by leading the league in scoring with 33 points en route to league championship and was named CHL Memorial Cup Most Sportsmanlike Player. Signed to an entry level deal in the spring he’ll start his pro career in the AHL and will need a bit of time there as he still has some work to do on the defensive side of the puck. But offensively he has as much upside as an player in the organization.
Colin White was one of the best freshmen in the NCAA this year. Among first year players the Boston College star finished fourth in scoring with 43 points in 41 games and was named to the Hockey East All-Rookie Team and Second Team All-Star. On the international stage, White was among the standouts for the bronze medal winning team USA at the World Junior Championship scoring seven points in as many games. Ottawa was eager to sign him at the end of the season but instead White decided to return to Chestnut Hill for another season with the Golden Eagles where he will no doubt shoulder a heavy load of the offense.
Not much was expected out of Dzingel when he was picked in the seventh round five year ago. But in the time since all he has done is produced at every level. In 119 AHL games to date, the former Hobey Baker nominee has produced to the tune of 0.65 ppg. This earned him a call-up in December and saw action in his first NHL game before being sent back down two days later. But it wasn’t the last we saw of Dzingel as he came back for good in February. In total he played in 30 games finding the back of the net three times and adding six assists in just under 11 minutes of ice/game. While a roster spot is by no means a lock for this upcoming season, he should have a leg up over other prospects when training camp opens.
Fallers
The grand prize of the undrafted college free agent derby of 2015, it’s safe to say that O’Connor has failed to live up to expectations since coming out of Boston University to much ballyhoo. Splitting crease time in Binghamton, O’Connor posted a record of 10-20-3 with a 0.895 SVS and 3.31 GAA. On a positive note for him, he was the starting goalie for the home opener in Ottawa. But it’s fair to say that owner Eugene Melnyk did not approve.
{source}<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Senators?src=hash">#Senators</a> owner Eugene Melnyk used the word "stupidity" in connection with the decision to play rookie G Matt O'Connor in home opener.</p>— Chris Stevenson (@CJ_Stevenson) <a href="https://twitter.com/CJ_Stevenson/status/712284401267314688">March 22, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Entering the second and final year of entry level deal, he’ll need to make a huge improvement in order to stay in the Sens future plans.
The third and only remaining player selected by Ottawa in the first round of 2011, Puempel has shown an ability to produce in the AHL but has failed to make a similar impact at the NHL level. In 39 career NHL games to date he has scored four goals and two assists. Yo-yoing between Ottawa and Binghamton this past season, it was difficult for for Puempel to establish any chemistry with some linemates over a sustained period of time. With turnover at the top of the organization in the form of GM Pierre Dorion and head coach Guy Boucher, Puempel sees this as an opportunity to have a fresh start. Signed to a one-year, two-way deal, it’s now or never.
{source}<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/Senators">@Senators</a> prospect Matt Puempel is looking to establish himself as a full-time NHLer → <a href="https://t.co/hqXfLOtHOY">https://t.co/hqXfLOtHOY</a> <a href="https://t.co/wTvHaBs90y">pic.twitter.com/wTvHaBs90y</a></p>— AHL (@TheAHL) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheAHL/status/764114768659673089">August 12, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>{/source}
A strong playoff run saved the season from being a total bust but overall it was a season that Gagne no doubt wants to put behind him. An injury limited him to seeing just 34 games of regular season action scoring 17 goals and assisting on 19 others. After averaging 0.52 goals per game in 2014-15, Gagne saw that number drop to 0.40. For someone pegged as a sniper this has to be considered a disappointment, especially considering the fact that he played most of his games with high powered Shawinigan Cataractes. Vocal in his desire to turn pro, management has other ideas deciding to send him back for a fourth junior season. How he plays in reaction to this will be telling. Will he sulk? Or play like he has something to prove?
Top 10
#1 Colin White – Two-way centre who will play on the top two lines and in all situations. 1-2 years away. 65-70 points
#2 Logan Brown – Top line playmaking centre, 2-3 years away, 70-75 points
#3 Thomas Chabot – Top pairing d-man. 1-2 years away. 50-55 points.
#4 Nick Paul – Top six power forward. Should arrive this fall. 50-60 points
#5 Francis Perron – Top six puck wizard winger that makes those around him better. 2-3 years away. 65-70 points.
#6 Matt Puempel – Middle six winger. This fall. 45-50 points
#7 Gabriel Gagne – Middle six sniping winger with boom or bust potential. 2-3 years away. 50-60 points
#8 Ryan Dzingel – Bottom six energy winger who can also contribute offensively. This fall. 35-40 points
#9 Filip Chlapik – Middle six playmaking centre. 50-55 points.
#10 Marcus Hogberg – #1 goaltender potential. 2-3 years away.
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Are these NHL point projections?! Surely you can’t believe that eight of the Senators current prospects project as 50pt players on a consistent basis, in the NHL. 87 total players in the NHL eclipsed that mark last year which would be ~3 per team…but you’re projecting that 8 of the top 10 prospects will reach that plateau on ONE team? This projection system should be tuned down a bit to reflect actual NHL scoring.
Hey BF,
Actually, that’s not a good way to project prospects at all. With prospects, you have to factor in their odds of making it. 85% for this guy, 50% for that guy, etc. So projecting eight prospects from one team for an upside of 50+ points is the right way to do it. It’s basically saying “yeah, four or five will get 50 at least once”. Now, to pick and choose which four or five players will do it, when we’re talking about unproven kids, is not just an exercise in futility, but it is guaranteed to be wrong with at least five or six of the players. So now you’d just be misleading your reader.
Just like projecting points for 20 players on a team for the coming season and trying to guess which player will get injured for 60 games by November. Chances are one player per team will be out for the season by November, right? To reflect actual NHL scoring? It’s useless to do that, so we don’t do it. And by the same token, we don’t pick and choose which players won’t reach their upsides, all we can do is provide odds that they reach it (in the Prospects Report)
Hi Dobber,
Appreciate the response but I have to respectfully disagree. Projecting out 8 players in the current roster as 50+ players (with no degree of certainty attached) is mis-leading your readers from the get-go. It doesn’t align with the currentl NHL scoring rates and it doesn’t take into account that some of these ‘prospects’ are 23/24 years old and likely close to their potential peaks. Having a singular season of 50 points should be labeled as a top-end total with their average likely to be somewhere around 35 points (random number).
Also, why even provide a point projection next to each player if you believe that “It’s basically saying ‘yeah, four or five will get 50 at least once’. Now, to pick and choose which four or five players will do it, when we’re talking about unproven kids, is not just an exercise in futility, but it is guaranteed to be wrong with at least five or six of the players. So now you’d just be misleading your reader.”…I have to question why the stats were used in the first place? Is this not exactly what was done?
Thanks for your work as always.
Thank you for being polite about disagreeing. I’ve had worse! lol
I can’t give a reader an upside the way you describe cause that is seriously misleading. To hand-pick which players will NOT get 50 points, when they actually COULD, is not fair. Each day, the outlook changes. A player ahead of him gets injured and ‘voila’, he Mike Hoffman’s his way past 50 points. Or a player ahead of him remains healthy and the team acquires a player in the same position at the deadline and ‘voila’, he’s a career minor-leaguer. Do you really think PA Parenteau was ever a true NHLer? If he didn’t get a shot with the Islanders, he’d have never gotten a sniff. That’s just one example, but there are 100 of them in any given year. And another 300 in the AHL or Europe whom we’ll never see in the NHL because they didn’t catch a break.
These are not point projections, they are upsides. If they were point projections, then it would look like this:
#1 Colin White – 0
#2 Logan Brown – 0
#3 Thomas Chabot – 3
#4 Nick Paul – 9
#5 Francis Perron – 0
#6 Matt Puempel – 10
#7 Gabriel Gagne – 0
#8 Ryan Dzingel – 18
#9 Filip Chlapik – 0
#10 Marcus Hogberg – 0
Would that help?
Or if it were a point projection of their best ever season (which I pretty much have in the FPR as a ‘3YP’ – but factor in certainty to make most of the 0 since most prospects don’t make it), it would look like this:
#1 Colin White – 54
#2 Logan Brown – 56
#3 Thomas Chabot – 40
#4 Nick Paul – 44
#5 Francis Perron – 54
#6 Matt Puempel – 40
#7 Gabriel Gagne – 5
#8 Ryan Dzingel – 41
#9 Filip Chlapik – 8
#10 Marcus Hogberg – 3 wins
Does that help? Really? Doesn’t help me at all. I already know that only three forwards and one defenseman are usefull, I want to see the ‘what if’ upsides. Because those ‘sure thing’ players are already drafted in my league
Glad you didn’t take that as a snarky response. I’m just a fan of forecasting and analytics myself so I enjoy the conversation around the logic, the final result etc.
To be honest? I wouldn’t project points at all…but if I was I would likely use the average point totals you project for a player during the formidable years (From rise to peak to fall) of his NHL career. That’s likely more of a keeper league approach but anyone really looking that hard at fantasy prospects is probably not playing single season fantasy.
The problem I had with the original post is that without the proper context included (as we have established here) most would read it as “Colin White is a 70 point player!”…which would get you into trouble in any prospect draft because the reader would be overvaluing his true long term value and placing him somewhere around John Tavares’ level of value.
Again, thanks for all of the content. I’m a daily reader so I really appreciate the diligence in keeping things fresh.
I like that you put in the possible points that a prospect could put up if everything goes right Dobber. Gives us something to compare to. As we know not all rookies will make it and even less play up to full potential. Here’s the system i use. I take the top 10 reduce it down to the top 5 that i think will play in the Nhl. Out of that 1 maybe 2 play up to full potential. I would say on Ottawa Brown and then Chabot would have the best possibility of playing up to their potential.