The ongoing social distancing mandate has given me an excellent opportunity to begin working on my fantasy draft lists for this offseason. Typically I would’ve begun earlier and tweaked the lists throughout the season, but this year I simply didn’t have the time. As such, one tool that I’ve relied on to form a rough starting point for my list is the ownership percentage of players in Fantrax leagues. The stat is available to anyone who holds a fantasy team in a Fantrax league, and most other platforms have a value reflecting the same statistic.
During my initial tweaking, I found a handful of players at the bottom of the barrel that baffled me. I wanted to take today’s Ramblings to discuss them a bit, and give my pitch for why their ownership rate should climb this offseason, beginning with you getting the inside scoop here and now.
LW | Jayden Halbgewachs, San Jose Sharks
1% owned in Fantrax Leagues | Growth Potential 200%-400%
They say every reaction in the world of fantasy hockey is an overreaction… well, they don’t actually say that about fantasy hockey, but I think when it comes to Halbgewaschs, that’s the case.
Is he a late bloomer? Absolutely. But the 23-year-old has already shown improvement at the AHL level since turning pro. He has one year remaining on his deal with San Jose and the team just might be in a position to give him a legitimate shot in the NHL.
Give a listen to Epiose 82 of the Dobber Prospects Radio Podcast with Peter Harling. Around the 71 minute-mark, Peter asks Craig Button about how to tell the difference between a late bloomer who will go on to have some success as a pro, and one who won’t. Based on Craig’s answers, I think Halbgewachs has the potential to make an impact in the NHL before his career is over.
Jayden Halbgewachs spoke to the media following his two-goal effort on Wednesday night🎥 pic.twitter.com/Uz76ot8ylF
— San Jose Barracuda (@sjbarracuda) January 16, 2020
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Based on some current comparables of Alex Volkov (TB) and Aleksi Saarela (FLA), who granted, may be over-owned, I’d say Halbgewachs stands to be snapped up in closer to 4% of leagues – a 400% increase from his current rate.
C | Adam Beckman, Minnesota Wild
5% owned in Fantrax Leagues | Growth Potential 150%-200%
The 2018 third-round draft-pick outscored any player in the Western Hockey League this year, tallying just shy of 50 goals as an 18-year-old. The spike in production comes as a bit of a surprise considering his pedigree, but Beckman boasts a mature skillset which was foolish for all of us to doubt. Even more foolish is the fact that a player who would now be considered in the top-20 of his draft class remained stuck at 5% ownership.
The toolsy, and tenacious forward signed his ELC with the Wild this March and could be a darkhorse for the 9-game trial this fall. Minnesota’s lack of recent success is enough reason to believe that few jobs are secure on the front lines in St. Paul. If there is any belief within the Wild front offices that Beckman could be a potentially impactful player, we could get to know the WHL First-team all star much better this year.
As such, his 5% ownership stands as a massive undervaluation by fantasy owners. Other prospects with similar production in the CHL rank among the highest owned prospects, making his potential for growth quite significant.
C | Mathias Emilio Peterson, Calgary Flames
3% owned in Fantrax Leagues | Growth Potential 150%-200%
Considering the depth of the Flames prospect forward ranks, there’s little doubt that the University of Denver sophomore is undervalued by fantasy owners at 3% ownership. MEP possesses a puck stills that are undoubtedly at an NHL level and has shown continuous growth since entering the collegiate ranks. While his path to the NHL may see him play yet another season or two in the NCHC, there’s little doubt that he will eventually become an impact player in the professional ranks.
Named Second-Team All-NCHC and a finalist for NCHC Forward of the Year, @pettersenm20 led the team with 35 points on 13 goals and 22 assists in 36 games #PioneerTogether pic.twitter.com/N4qrTobR7Y
— Denver Hockey (@DU_Hockey) April 10, 2020
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While the comparables for MEP are limited to fellow 21-year-old Evan Barratt (CHI), it seems evident that NCAA players who were not first-round draft picks lack the attention they deserve until it’s too late. If the depth of your fantasy league can allow you to justify a claim for players who are below 10% owned, Both MEP and Evan Barratt would be solid considerations for that opportunity.
For further information on any of these prospects, make sure to check out their individual profiles on Dobber Prospects, by following the link attached to their name, or find the most recent revision of the Dobber Prospects Fantasy Prospects Report in the Dobber Prospects Store. The 2020 version of the FPR is in production and will contain further detailed information for each of these players, and many more. Be sure to keep your eyes out for that in the near future!
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