Prospect Ramblings: Decade of Drafting Preview

by Pat Quinn on May 27, 2020

 

 

Welcome to the Thursday ramblings, thanks to my last month series on players drafted too high, developed improperly, or injured (see here for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017-2019) it gave me a new idea on a series. I want to look at the decades of drafting from the North American leagues that are not the CHL or NCAA, so I will look at the BCHL, AJHL, USHL, USNTDP, and other leagues seen below. This may become a big series to research and write so I have something different set up for next week, so I can get some extra work and redefining completed.

 

My intro for this will be deciding if the players drafted in the first round from the leagues between 2009 and 2019 are bust, not a bust, or too soon to tell (but I will decide if they count as a bust or not with their current development path), and then showing the results at the end. Bust basically means they did not make the NHL for a long period of time, there are circumstances surrounding many players of course, but I will not get in to that.

 

Before I begin, here is my #GoodTweet of the week:

 

 

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2009

 

Nick Leddy – 16th overall Minnesota (High-MN)

  • Not a bust, still a good top four defenseman

Louis Leblanc – 18th overall Montreal (USHL)

  • Bust

Chris Kreider – 19th overall New York Rangers (High-MA)

  • Not a bust, you see that new contract?

Jordan Schroeder – 22nd overall Vancouver (Big Ten)

  • Bust

Kyle Palmieri – 26th overall Anaheim (USNTDP)

  • Not a bust, great Devils player!

Dylan Olsen – 28th overall Chicago (AJHL)

  • Bust

 

 

2010

 

Jack Campbell – 11th overall Dallas (USHL)

  • Bust, in the sense that he was supposed to be a starting goalie
    • Not a bust, in that he is a quality back-up

Jaden Schwartz – 14th overall St. Louis (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Derek Forbort – 15th overall LA (USHL)

  • Not a bust (barely)

Nick Bjustad – 19th overall Florida (High-MN)

  • Not a bust

Beau Bennett – 20th overall Pittsburgh (BCHL)

  • Bust, damn injuries

Jarred Tinordi – 22nd overall Montreal (USHL)

  • Bust, he is more of a replacement defenseman as he does not stick in the NHL

Kevin Hayes – 24th overall Chicago (High-MA)

  • Not a bust, so much Philadelphia money

Charlie Coyle – 28th overall San Jose (EJHL)

  • Not a bust

Brock Nelson – 30th overall New York Islanders (High-MN)

  • Not a bust

 

 

2011

 

Jamie Oleksiak – 14th overall Dallas (H-East)

  • Not a bust, he stays in the lineup enough but he is on the edge

J.T. Miller – 15th overall New York Rangers (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Tyler Biggs – 22nd overall Toronto (USHL)

  • Bust

 

 

2012

 

Jacob Trouba – 9th overall Winnipeg (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Zemgus Girgensons – 14th overall Buffalo (USHL)

  • Not a bust, made the all-star team and is frequently in the lineup still (somehow)

Mark Jankowski – 21st overall Calgary (High-QC)

  • Not a bust, he is an NHL player

Michael Matheson – 23rd overall Florida (USHL)

  • Not a bust, even though it is unknown to John Quenville what position he plays

Jordan Schmaltz – 25th overall St. Louis (USHL)

  • Bust, cannot stick in the NHL yet

Brady Skjei – 28th overall New York Rangers (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Sefan Matteau – 29th overall New Jersey (USHL)

  • Bust

 

 

2013

 

Michael McCarron – 25th overall Montreal (USHL)

  • Bust

 

 

2014

 

Dylan Larkin – 15th overall Detroit (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Sonny Milano – 16th overall Columbus (USHL)

  • Not a bust, finally sticking in the NHL and Anaheim may be the perfect spot for him

Alex Tuch – 18th overall Minnesota (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Nick Schmaltz – 20th overall Chicago (USHL)

  • Not a bust (and better than Dylan Strome… until I am proved wrong but I do not think I will be)

 

 

2015

 

Jack Eichel – 2nd overall Buffalo (H-East)

  • Not a bust

Noah Hanifin – 5th overall Carolina (H-East)

  • Not a bust (overrated in fantasy though)

Zach Weresnski – 8th overall Columbus (Big Ten)

  • Not a bust

Kyle Connor – 17th overall Winnipeg (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Colin White – 21st overall Ottawa (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Brock Boeser – 23rd overall Vancouver (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Jack Roslovic – 25th overall Winnipeg (USHL)

  • Not a bust, also not given much of an opportunity

 

 

2016

 

Clayton Keller – 7th overall Arizona (USHL)

  • Not a bust

Tyson Jost – 10th overall Colorado (BCHL)

  • Not a bust, bust should be due to his hype and draft position

Charles McAvoy – 14th overall Boston (H-East)

  • Not a bust

Luke Kunin – 15th overall Minnesota (Big Ten)

  • Not a bust, slightly too soon to tell though

Dante Fabbro – 17th overall Nashville (BCHL)

  • Not a bust

Kieffer Bellows – 19th overall New York Islanders (USHL)

  • Bust, as f right now but highly likely he is a player

Dennis Cholowski – 20th overall Detroit (BCHL)

  • Not a bust, needs to get in to the line up though

Riley Tufte – 25th overall Dallas (High-MN)

  • Bust

Tage Thompson – 26th overall St. Louis (H-East)

  • Bust, can still turn it around

Trent Frederic – 29th overall Boston (USHL)

  • Too soon to tell, but was drafted as a third line player (put as bust right now as you should not draft for your bottom line in the first round of the draft)

 

 

2017

 

Cale Makar – 4th overall Colorado (AJHL)

  • Not a bust

Casey Mittelstadt – 8th overall Buffalo (High-MN)

  • Bust, as of right now but this can be turned around in to a season

Joshua Norris – 19th overall San Jose (USNTDP)

  • Too soon to tell (development shows not a bust)

Ryan Poehling – 25th overall Montreal (NCHC)

  • Too soon to tell (development shows not a bust)

Jake Ottinger – 26th overall Dallas (H-East)

  • Too soon to tell (development shows not a bust)

Shane Bowers – 28th overall Ottawa (USHL)

  • Too soon to tell (development shows bust since he is more of a bottom-line player, I could be 100% wrong in two years)

Eeli Tolvanen – 30th overall Nashville (USHL)

  • Too soon to tell (This feels like a bust for me with Nashville killing offense somehow these days, and him slowly adapting to the AHL, but I still feel he can make it. Needs to step it up)

 

 

2018

 

Brady Tkachuk – 4th overall Ottawa (H-East)

  • Not a bust

Quinn Hughes – 7th overall Vancouver (Big Ten)

  • Not a bust

Oliver Whalstrom – 11th overall New York Islanders (USNTDP)

  • Too soon to tell (not a bust with his current development)

Joel Farabee – 14th overall Philadelphia (USNTDP)

  • Not a bust

Jay O’Brien – 19th overall Philadelphia (High-MA)

  • Too soon to tell (bust with me not liking his current development)

K’Ander Miller – 22nd overall New York Rangers (USNTDP)

  • Too soon to tell (not a bust with his current development)

Jacon Bernard-Docker – 26th overall Ottawa (AJHL)

  • Too soon to tell (not a bust with his current development)

 

 

2019

 

Jack Hughes – 1st overall New Jersey (USNTDP)

  • Not a bust

Alex Turcotte – 5th overall LA (USNTDP)

  • Too soon to tell (not a bust but needs to pick it up)

Matthew Boldy – 12th overall Minnesota (USNTDP)

  • Too soon to tell (not a bust, that last half of the season really saved him here)

Spencer Knight – 13th overall Florida (USNTDP)

  • Too soon to tell (played great so far, but you really should not draft a goalie high, still not a bust)

Cameron York – 14th overall Philadelphia (USNTDP)

  • Too soon to tell (not a bust with current development)

Cole Caufield – 15th overall Montreal (USNTDP) 

  • Too soon to tell (not a bust with current development)

Alex Newhook – 16th overall Colorado (BCHL)

  • Too soon to tell (not a bust with current development)

John Beecher – 30th overall Boston (USNTDP)

  • Too soon to tell (bust as you should not draft a bottom six player in the first round)

Ryan Johnson – 31st overall Buffalo (USHL)

  • Too soon to tell (not a bust with current development)

 

 

Results

 

This will likely be how the series is laid out. Except it will be one of the leagues listed above, all of the drafted players from 2009 and 2019, and I will analyze how well the players drafted from the league did and by round. I hope this turns out well. I may have to slit up the USHL though as lots of players appear to be drafted from there.

 

Bust

Not Bust

League

Total

Bust %

Not Bust %

Total % Drafted

2

3

High-MN

5

40%

60%

7.14%

1

2

High-MA

3

33.33%

66.67%

4.29%

1

6

H-East

7

14.29%

85.71%

10.00%

1

3

Big Ten

4

25%

75%

5.71%

0

1

NCHC

1

0

100%

1.43%

11

17

USHL

28

39.29%

60.71%

40.00%

1

11

USNTDP

12

8.33%

91.67%

17.14%

1

2

AJHL

3

33.33%

66.67%

4.29%

1

4

BCHL

5

20%

80%

7.14%

0

1

EJHL

1

0

100%

1.43%

0

1

High-QC

1

0

100%

1.43%

 

Total drafted

70

 

 

 

 

The majority of first round selections were from the USHL and USNTDP at 57.14%, and the USNTDP has the best percentage record for players not being busts.

 

 

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I hope everyone looks forward to this, but next week I have something else planned before I get going with this.

 

Follow my twitter: @FHPQuinn