August 32-in-32: Detroit Red Wings

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The 32-in-32 Series is an annual event here at DobberProspects. Every day in August we will be bringing you a complete breakdown of a team’s Draft and insights into their off-season movements thus far. Following this up in September, we will dive into every team’s prospect depth chart with fantasy insights and implications for the upcoming seasons. 

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It feels like the “Yzerplan” has lost much of its lustre at this point, as both a gimmicky name and the shiny label on Detroit’s ongoing rebuild. That does not mean that rebuilding is stalling out or going sideways, just that these things take a while and some realism likely needed to creep in around the timeline and capabilities of GM Steve Yzerman.

Yzerman was asked in a recent interview whether he felt it was “playoffs or bust” for the Wings headed into 2024-25, and he characteristically tempered that question with a dose of his sound, steady realism: “I’m trying to build the nucleus of a team that can make the playoffs on an annual basis.” Detroit is obviously not going all-in on short-term success, selling off picks for expensive free agents and whatnot just to make the playoffs and appease the season ticket holders. They have a core, they have a vision, and they are building for the long-term.

That core is beginning to take shape, too. 

No longer is this once-proud franchise icing a mediocre team consisting of Dylan Larkin and almost literally no one else. Up front, in addition to their speedy captain, they now boast Alex DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond as elite pieces to build around. On the back end, not many teams feature as many young, high-upside defenders as Detroit does, with Mo Seider, Simon Edvinsson, Axel Sandin Pellikka, William Wallinder, Shai Buium, and more on the way. Finally, they have Sebastian Cossa and Trey Augustine moving up through the ranks in goal in case Ville Husso cannot rediscover the impeccable form from his St. Louis days (+14.95 GSAA in 2021-22) and lock down the starter’s role in Detroit longer term.

While this team might still miss the playoffs in 2024-24, Yzerman’s vision is slowly starting to emerge. And there is more help on the way with each successive draft.

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Draft Recap

Round 1, 15th Overall – Michael Brandsegg-Nygard

As many pundits predicted, Detroit used their first-round selection on burgeoning power forward Brandsegg-Nygard, who became the highest-drafted Norwegian player in NHL history. Standing at 6-1 and a stocky 200 lbs, Brandsegg-Nygard is a physical, defensively responsible player with decent—but not high-end—offensive upside. That has become the Red Wings’ calling card lately under Yzerman; both Nate Danielson (2023, 9th) and Marco Kasper (2022, 8th) follow that same blueprint and were selected with higher-upside options still on the board. 

While fans understandably clamour for upside at the draft, Detroit is steadily assembling a roster that will be very difficult to play against when it all comes together. All three of the recent first-round picks mentioned above share above-average mobility, physicality, and two-way presence, with each of them also possessing specific individual gifts. Brandsegg-Nygard’s standout skill is his shot (6.5 rating from Elite Prospects), which could give him a higher offensive ceiling than either Kasper or Danielson. Although he did not score the lights out in the second-tier Allsvenskan, he was prolific against his peers in the J20 Nationell and was considered one of the most NHL-ready players in the draft. The power forward will take his talents to the SHL next year and could see NHL ice as soon as 2025-26.

Round Two, 47th Overall – Max Plante

Plante was a beloved member of yet another loaded NTDP roster in 2023-24, bringing positive energy, defensive responsibility (notice a theme?), and sublime playmaking. His high-end passing skill made him the perfect complementary piece to dynamic snipers like James Hagens (2025 eligible), Cole Eiserman (NYI), and Teddy Stiga (NAS). The Wings clearly appreciated that Plante was one of the best playmakers in the draft, because they were willing to overlook some glaring holes in his skill-set that will require concentrated development to overcome—notably, his poor foot speed, weak shot, and limited physicality. 

As we will dig into in a later section, though, Plante has already shown a ton of progress in this area while representing Team USA in the World Junior Summer Showcase. He made for a solid grab in the middle of the second round even though many outlets had him as a mid-to-late third round option.

Round Three, 80th Overall – Ondrej Becher

Historically speaking, overaged double re-entries like Becher tend to not amount to much at the NHL level. In terms of trajectories, the earlier prospects can hit certain NHL equivalency (NHLe) benchmarks the better, so there are not too many players that get drafted after being passed over two years in a row. But Becher is gunning for outlier status. Equivalency models struggle to account for the Czech leagues that he came up in as a draft-eligible, and it took him a couple years after coming to North America to fully acclimate to the WHL level, so perhaps there is still an NHL player here. In 2023-24, he played a key role on the Prince George Cougars alongside high-octane scorers like Riley Heidt (MIN) and Terik Parascak (WAS), where his mark of 1.66 points per game actually outpaced the higher-profile (but two years younger) Parascak’s production of 1.56. 

Like Plante, Becher’s skill-set, highlighted by excellent passing ability, is hindered by poor footspeed. Microstats show an excellent three-zone impact, however, suggesting that the 20-year-old Becher is ready to wade into the pro level with Grand Rapids of the AHL this year. He thinks the game well and is ready to compete against men. How well he does in the minors will dictate his timeline, but he is likely closer to NHL action than many of his peers from the 2024 draft.

Round Four, 126th Overall – Landon Miller

It is always difficult to evaluate goalies, even once they have established themselves at the NHL level, so 18-year-old prospect goalies are more or less a crapshoot. At the same time, it is a prudent move for clubs to consistently stock the cupboards with late-round swings like Miller to increase their chances of one of them making the show. You do not have to be a goalie expert to notice how fully Miller’s 6-5 frame fills the net, even when he’s on his knees. That is the kind of size that teams lust after in their creases, and it’s obviously not something that can be taught. 

Watching him play, his positioning and mobility need work, but his reactions are excellent and allow him to close apparent holes that shooters believe they can exploit. While his stats with the Soo Greyhounds (OHL) from last year do not jump off the page (2.79 GAA, 0.889 SV% in 30 games), he notably outplayed the Soo’s ostensible starter, Charlie Schenkel, which can be a solid way to contextualize a goaltender’s performance. Expect a long wait, and keep your fingers crossed if you’re a Wings fan.

Round Five, 144th Overall – John Whipple

Whipple is like a lower-powered version of New York Rangers’ 2024 first rounder, EJ Emery: a mobile shutdown defender who plays a strong, physical game and maintains a suffocating defensive presence. Listed at a solid 6-1, 194 lbs, Whipple is particularly proficient at defending the rush, forcing attackers to the outside and smothering them against the boards. While he seems like a longshot to make the NHL at this point, there is a world in which Whipple becomes a steady bottom-pairing defensive presence on the Wings’ blue line at some point down the line, especially because he is set to join U of Minnesota’s excellent NCAA program in 2024-25.

Round Six, 176th Overall – Charlie Forslund

Way down in the sixth round, fans want to see their team swing on boom-bust players like Forslund. And unlike most other upside picks in that range, the 6-4 Forslund looks more boom than bust for several reasons. While most draft eligible Swedish prospects play in the J20 Nationell, he bounced around between the second-tier U18 league, the third-tier U20 league, and, finally, the third-tier pro men’s league. That last stop was his most intriguing, especially because he was a point-per-game offensive leader there over the final 19 games of the year. 

Although Forslund still faces very long odds of making the NHL and it remains uncertain whether his game will scale up well at higher levels, I love this pick more and more as an under-the-radar upside play. He has size, tenacity, and a dangerous release. He will join Mora IK in the J20 Nationell this year, which should help clarify his potential and timeline. Kudos to Detroit’s scouting staff for scooping this late-round gem.

Round Seven, 203rd Overall – Austin Baker

Snagging a member of the NTDP in the seventh round seems like excellent value, given that program’s increasingly prestigious reputation. While Baker played a depth role on that team last year and likely will again at Michigan State this year, his profile does not have many glaring holes other than a general lack of dynamism. He is a fast player who is fairly reliably defensively and likes to play rough. If he can activate the more offensive parts of his game, he may have potential some day as a checking line defensive specialist in the NHL.

Round Seven, 208th Overall – Fisher Scott

Scott is not a well-known commodity at this point and did not feature on draft lists or garner scouting reports. He is a big guy (6-2) who served as Dubuque’s Assistant Captain as a draft eligible, an appointment that suggests he has leadership potential. Good to see for someone so young. While his half-a-point-per-game does not look too enticing, that was the second-highest output among defenders on his team, so it is not exactly insignificant either. Like most players on this list, Scott will ply his wares at the college level with Colorado College this year and will show what he is made of over the next few years. He seems like a decent enough swing in the final stages of the draft, but time will tell.

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Off-Season Moves

All of Detroit’s offseason transactions are listed below, but here are some of the highlights. 

Yzerman decided to bring back Patrick Kane, last year’s marquee free agent signing, for another year at a mid-sized cap hit. He then further beefed up on the wing by signing veteran sniper Vladimir Tarasenko. Both these players provide an infusion of scoring and experience that could help hasten the Wings’ rebuild. 

New addition Erik Gustafsson has a shot at running Detroit’s top PP unit, as that has been the journeyman’s speciality his whole career. He is fairly one-dimensional but could be an interesting sleeper in fantasy if he can win and hold onto that role for an extended stretch. 

Cam Talbot was brought in for a couple years to help steady the goaltending. Incumbent Ville Husso will get first crack at the starter’s role, but Talbot’s presence will hopefully help ground him after an up-and-down campaign in 2023-24.

That Jake Walman trade with San Jose raised eyebrows around the hockey world. This one was definitely a head scratcher but came down to a numbers game. Yzerman still has to re-sign RFAs Jonatan Berggren, Mo Seider, and Lucas Raymond, and those contracts will take a massive bit out of Detroit’s comfortable-looking $17.6 million in current cap space. With the addition of Gustafsson and the graduation of Simon Edvinsson, there are just too many bodies on this blue line. 

Here is a bit more context on the trade from the man himself:

Staying

Patrick Kane → One-year contract ($6.5 million per year)

Michael Brandsegg-Nygard → Three-year entry-level contract

Axel Sandin Pellikka → Three-year entry-level contract

Joe Veleno → Two-year contract ($2.275 million per year)

Albert Johansson → One-year, two-way contract

Arriving

Vladimir Tarasenko → Two-year contract ($4.75 million per year)

Erik Gustafsson → Two-year contract ($2 million per year)

Cam Talbot → Two-year contract ($2.5 million per year)

Tyler Motte → One-year contract ($800 000)

Tory Dello → One-year, two-way contract

Gage Alexander

Joe Snively → One-year, two-way contract

Christian Fischer → One-year contract ($1.125 million)

Jack Campbell → One-year contract ($775 000)

Sheldon Dries → Two-year, two-way contract

William Lagesson → One-year Contract ($775 000)

Jesse Kiiskanen → Acquired from Nashville along with a 2nd-round pick in 2024 (Max Plante)

Leaving

Jake Walman → Traded to San Jose for Future Considerations

Austin Czarnik → Swiss National League

Robby Fabbri → Traded to Anaheim

Andrew Gibson → Traded to Nashville

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Development Camp & WJSS

29 forwards, 14 defensemen and seven goaltenders attended the Red Wings’ Development Camp at the start of July, including all eight the 2024 picks mentioned above. Check out the full roster here. Marco Kasper seemed like the main notable omission.

The Red Wings had an illustrious visitor at camp this year: Pavel Datsyuk, the legend himself who inspired one of the highest praises you can give someone’s puck handling in hockey (“Datsyukian”), was in attendance in an unofficial role to lend his wisdom to the young guns.

For whatever it’s worth (not much), there is apparently a lot of interest in both fishing and golfing amongst Red Wings prospects. Key silly points to watch for in this clip: 1) Danny Cleary’s flat reactions and chirps to some of the “fun facts”, and 2) Datsyuk at the end answering that he is “still walking” as his contribution.

A few key takeaways from Sam Stockton over at The Hockey News about some of the Wings who featured in the World Junior Summer Showcase. Make sure to check out Stockton’s full article for more info:

• Trey Augustine had a light week but continues to showcase technical proficiency, demonstrate maturity, and exude calm in the crease—his calling cards at last year’s draft.
• Max Plante has been a standout presence on the second line of a loaded US team. Although skating was one of his main deficiencies flagged at the draft, Detroit’s coach Derek Lalonde said, “What I was really taken (aback) from at development camp and my time here is how (much) better he skates than I probably anticipated, and how strong he is on the skates. I think he’s going to be a really, really nice player. Really good job by our staff.” Strong camp for Plante.
• John Whipple has been just as advertised: a physical defensive defenceman who loves to lay the body and get himself in front of shots whenever possible.
• Recent acquisition Jesse Kiiskanen was Team Finland’s captain and showed his leadership by driving a third-line checking unit. Although he scored a fancy between-the-legs goal, his fantasy upside looks quite limited.

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Final Thoughts

The modern Red Wings brand is taking shape: they are becoming a fast, deep, physical team who can play the game however you want to play it. 

There is no question that 2018 hurt this rebuild, though. Just imagine how this roster might look today had they taken Brady Tkachuk instead of Filip Zadina at sixth overall. Although Joe Veleno (2018, 30th) is still with the club in a depth role, his offensive upside never materialized either. Taking Seider the following year, also at 6th overall, equally rocked the hockey world but in the opposite direction. That looks like a genius-level pick in retrospect, so you win some and lose some.

But for every “steady” pick, there actually have also been “fun” picks: Jonatan Berggren, also from that 2018 draft, should make the team in a full-time capacity this year after rocking the AHL last year; behind Kasper in 2022 came the dynamic Dmitry Buchelnikov (52nd); Sandin Pellikka, whose stocks have been headed straight up, was selected after Danielson in 2023; and Plante and Becher helped supplement the Brandsegg-Nygard pick this past June.

Zooming out, there has been a lot of careful balance put into the construction of this team. The results should start to show over the next few years, with one of North America’s most storied franchises hopefully returning to long-term glory.

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